Democrats’ 2028 Priorities: Traits vs Names

By Bradley Wascher, NPI Data Analyst

Three years out from the 2028 presidential primaries, Democrats are in the wilderness. They’re looking for a leader, but no candidates have announced a presidential run, and polls show that Democratic voters have no idea who they want at the front.

But NPI’s April national poll of registered voters, conducted in partnership with The Center Square, finds that Democrats know what they want, even if they don’t know who. And our research shows that just a couple candidates fit the bill.

In our poll, two key qualities stood out: Democratic voters said their politicians should fight Trump more often, while also striking an ideological balance that avoids alienating moderates or progressives. A plurality (46%) said the Democratic Party is “about right” on the issues, while 74% said Democrats, specifically in Congress, should fight Trump more often. So we looked through some of the most talked-about candidates and rated them — based on our expert opinion, conventional wisdom, and available evidence — on those two qualities.

Out of the potential major candidates in 2028, this description most closely fits New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker. Booker is viewed as progressive-friendly while also more pragmatic. Booker recently raised his profile by defying Trump and Republicans in a record-breaking, day-long speech on the Senate floor. Booker quietly checks both boxes: somewhere between moderate and progressive, certainly willing to take on Trump.

Then there’s former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. He’s long fashioned himself as a moderate, and he challenges Trump often, even going on Fox News. Yet Buttigieg could very easily fall into the same narrow ideological lane as in the 2020 primary — and this time, he probably can’t rely on the favorable demographics of the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucus.

Based on our smell test and early conventional wisdom, the other potential candidates — in one way or another — all fail to fit the profile of a moderate fighter.

Take California Gov. Gavin Newsom, another big name who ostensibly has both traits. He certainly goes after Trump in his national appearances, while also inviting Trump allies onto his podcast. But being from California gives him progressive vibes that are hard to shake, even if his actual policy record is more mixed and his positions shift.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris is in a similar position. As the only potential 2028 contender to have run a presidential general election, Harris is the most visible foil to Trump in the Democratic field. But earning that reputation also marked Harris with her largest liability: she lost. Harris’s ideological profile is harder to pin down — she’s been framed as both too cautious and too liberal — but she remains the most nationally recognized option.

Race to the White House currently finds Harris leading Buttigieg by 14 points, 28% to 14%, in an average of Democratic primary polls. Without Harris, the field is even more crowded and open. This makes the two preferred qualities — being tough on Trump and an ideological Goldilocks — even more important as candidates begin defining themselves.

Two other potential names, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, have a lot in common: moderate governors of Rust Belt battleground states who aren’t always in a politically advantageous position to attack Trump. Shapiro talked to Trump on the phone after an arson attack at the Pennsylvania governor’s residence, while Whitmer had an awkward photo op — not equivalent concessions (Whitmer’s gaffe was practically its own news cycle), but a shared constraint other candidates won’t have to deal with.

Clearly occupying the progressive lane is New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has basically primed her as his spiritual successor, and she is perhaps the most vocally aggressive major Democrat against Trump, thanks to her massive social media presence. Yet based on the traits identified in our poll, although AOC electrifies a key segment of the base, she may be out of step with the median Democratic primary voter.

But AOC has one advantage that Booker, Buttigieg, and some hypothetically better positioned candidates don’t: the ability to attract attention.

Our poll also asked who Democratic voters saw as the leader of their party. Ocasio-Cortez finished near the middle of the pack at 5%, while Booker earned 3% and Buttigieg was unranked. No one broke double digits except Harris at 10%. Next were party standard-bearers who won’t run for president — House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (7%), Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (7%), Sanders (6%), and former President Joe Biden (5%) — whereas Newsom mustered 1%, and Whitmer and Shapiro failed to make the board. Over one-third of Democratic voters could not name a clear party leader.

In a crowded primary field, eyeballs are the most important currency. Candidates win by amassing attention first, then they find their votes, build a base, and try to win states. In the prelude to 2028, Booker has already held the spotlight, but only briefly. In a poll asking about a hypothetical Democratic primary — conducted in mid-April, shortly after Booker’s marathon Senate speech — Echelon Insights found him in second place behind Harris at 11%. But by mid-May, he had fallen to fourth, with just 6%.

Four years ago, Booker struggled to hit double digits early, lost support as more candidates entered the race, and eventually dropped out before the primaries. If he runs again and wants to win in 2028, he will need to get better at maintaining hype.

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