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Arizonans Cautiously Optimistic on Achieving Herd Immunity

COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy Remains Stagnant

PHOENIX (November 16, 2021)- OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) has been regularly tracking the movement of COVID-19 sentiment and vaccination willingness via the Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) throughout the course of the pandemic. While current concern and optimism for the future have trended in a similar direction as new COVID cases, the approximately 20% of Arizonans who have been unwilling to take the COVID-19 vaccine since early 2021 have still not changed their minds. As of November’s AZPOP, there are still one in five Arizonans (23%) who remain unwilling to take the vaccine.

This AZPOP was conducted from November 1 – November 8, 2021 and surveyed 853 general population Arizonans (18+ YO) with a margin of error of ± 3.34%. Of the 853 completed surveys, 713 were registered voters. The sample of 713 registered voters yielded a MoE of ± 3.7%.

General Population

Concern over COVID-19 is holding steady after spiking in September, likely as a result of the Delta variant surge. In November, there are still more Arizonans who are extremely/moderately concerned (43%) than those who are slightly/not at all concerned (35%) about the Coronavirus issue in the state. However, while current attitudes are holding steady, optimism for the future of the COVID situation is increasing among Arizona residents – nearly twice as many respondents believe Arizona’s COVID issue will get better in the next 30 days (37%) than those who believe it will get worse (20%).

nov 2021 azpop covid better worse

This AZPOP survey included a new question regarding the Coronavirus, asking residents how likely they believe it is that Arizona will reach herd immunity (experts estimate immunity of 80-90% of the population would be required). Results found that nearly half of respondents (47%) believe it is likely that Arizona will be able to reach herd immunity.

“The data shows that almost half of Arizonans believe the state will be able to achieve that 80-90% mark of herd immunity, however we have seen a consistent stand against taking the COVID-19 vaccine from that approximately 20% share of residents,” said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research. “Without the movement of those unwilling to take the vaccine, reaching herd immunity may not be as likely as Arizonans think.”

When asked which anti-COVID measures respondents would support, no single measure earned a majority vote. The most supported measures by Arizonans were mask mandates (40% support mask mandates for school children, 40% support them for unvaccinated Arizonans, and 37% support them for all Arizonans) and vaccine mandates (38%). Measures that limit daily activity like implementing a stay-at-home order (16%) and closing public schools (15%) are the least supported.

Registered Voters

In each survey that OHPI has collected data on the subject of COVID-19, concern over the outbreak has been closely tied to a respondent’s political affiliation. For the majority of the pandemic, Arizona Independents have trended, perhaps predictably, between Republicans and Democrats in terms of degree of concern over the spread of COVID. However, concern among Independents began trending more closely with that of Republicans than Democrats in July, and the sentiment of Independents has continued to lean slightly more “R” than “D.”

nov 2021 azpop extreme mod concern covid by party

Additionally, Independents are beginning to align closer to Republicans than Democrats on other COVID-19 topics. More than one-quarter of Independents (27%) are unwilling to take the COVID-19 vaccine – only 7% less than the share of Republicans unwilling to do so (34%). Meanwhile, only 10% of Democrats say they would not take the vaccine.

nov 2021 azpop vax willingness by party

In terms of preferred anti-COVID measures, mask and vaccine mandates are also the most supported among Arizona voters by statistically equivalent shares as the general population sample. Looking at partisan divide, three in five Republicans (59%) support none of the measures mentioned to stop the spread of COVID, as do 28% of Independents. Only 6% of Democrats said the same.

“Independents in Arizona have always been a curious group to pin down, and it can be challenging to paint a clear picture of overarching Independent values and priorities,” said Noble. “But, when Independent trends begin to shift, watching the direction they came from and where they go helps us understand what might be driving Independent sentiment.”


Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from November 1-8, 2021, from an Arizona Statewide General Population sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, ethnicity, party affiliation, and education according to a recent voter file derived from the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office and recent Census data. The sample size was 853 general population (18+ YO) Arizonans, with a MoE of ± 3.1%. Of the 853 completed surveys, 713 were registered voters. The sample of 713 registered voters yielded a MoE of ± 3.7%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Media Contact:

Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights,, (602) 390-5248

About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to elevate the world around us by empowering decision-makers with digestible data and actionable insights that translate to data-based solutions. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly O.H. Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at



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