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Arizona Votes Blue – But it Wants a Generic Republican

Democrats are Scattered in Their Priorities



PHOENIX (March 5, 2024)- As November approaches, Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) helps paint a high-level picture of Arizona’s political climate, digging in to voter preferences as the 2024 election season takes shape.

 

This AZPOP, conducted from February 6–13, 2024, surveyed 1,002 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.1%. 

 

In the last three national elections, Democrats have performed very well in Arizona – taking their first Senate seat in 30 years in 2018, Biden winning in 2020, and all Senate and Gubernatorial races going blue since. However, the latest AZPOP data shows that voters still prefer the generic brand of GOP to the average Democrat.

 

feb 2024 azpop generic ballots

Republicans have continued their small lead since the July AZPOP, where they led the generic congressional ballot +2 and the generic state ballot +5.

 

This AZPOP asked voters who were registered as a party other than Democrat or Republican whether they tend to lean Democrat, lean Republican, or neither. Among these voters, those who chose “neither” have been identified as “True Independents.” This poll makes this distinction to get a more in-depth understanding of these influential voters who, in battleground Arizona, often cast the deciding votes. When looking at generic state and congressional ballots among parties and leaners, the data reveals a more intricate picture of Republicans’ lead.


feb 2024 azpop generic ballots by party

 

“Essentially, what’s happening here is when Republicans and Republican-leaners imagine a generic Republican, they want that person to govern. The same goes for Democrats,” said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. “True Independents are unsure, but slightly favor the GOP. Given that the plurality of Arizona voters are registered Republicans OR Independents who say they lean GOP, that unity gives the GOP the edge.”

 

 

Top Issues

Additionally, Arizona voters’ top issues currently favor Republicans in the sense that those issues are traditionally successful Republican platforms: immigration and economic issues. In the February AZPOP, immigration and inflation statistically tie as the No. 1 issue for voters and are both ranked in the top three issues for more than half of voters. All other issues lag well behind.


feb 2024 azpop top issues

“Inflation is a good issue for the GOP because everyone feels the economic pain, which helps Republicans across the board – plus, Republicans are generally more trusted on immigration,” said David Byler. “The GOP base is mobilized. It’s the best of both worlds for them.”

 

Republicans and Independents mainly coalesce around immigration and inflation as their top issues, with Republicans leaning more toward immigration (39% said No. 1 issue) and Independents leaning more toward inflation (31% said No. 1 issue).


feb 2024 azpop top issues by party

While Republicans and Independents are unified in the issues most important to them, Democrats are scattered in their priorities. The No. 1 issue for Democrats, inflation, is comprised of only 18% of Democrats, followed closely by healthcare (15%) and abortion (13%). This disunity in the Democratic Party can make these voters more difficult to capture – everyone wants something different. Republicans and Independents, however, are more clear on what they want, which helps pave a clear path for candidates to build their campaign platforms around these issues to better capture these voters. Considering that Independents are currently leaning to the right, this is another advantage for the GOP in Arizona.  

 

In Conclusion 

“Overall, the February AZPOP shows great numbers for generic Republicans. But, generic Republicans don’t exist. Real people run. The baseline political environment is good for Arizona Republicans – if they can find the right candidates to take advantage of it.”



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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from February 6–13, 2024 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 1,002 completed surveys, with an MoE of ± 3.1%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.


Media Contact:

Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248


About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly O.H. Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.

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