A Deep Look at Trump/Gallego Voters
- Noble Predictive Insights
- Jun 27
- 4 min read
By Bradley Wascher, NPI Data Analyst
How did Ruben Gallego pull it off?
Even as Donald Trump carried Arizona by nearly 6 points last November, the Democratic congressman was elected to the Senate by over 2 points — the largest gap of any state with a split presidential/Senate outcome in 2024.
The answer can be found by drilling down. According to an NPI analysis of precinct-level election results, Gallego won key communities in the Valley and beyond — particularly working-class and Hispanic suburbs, as well as educated white voters — which Vice President Kamala Harris did not.
Across Arizona, 160 precincts split their tickets between Trump and Gallego in 2024.*
These crossover precincts proved crucial in both races, behaving in distinctive ways. Trump carried Arizona by 187,000 net votes, more than twice Gallego’s 81,000-vote margin over Republican Kari Lake. But in split Trump/Gallego precincts, it was the opposite: Gallego won by 17,500 votes while Trump’s lead was 16,300.
To better understand the underlying dynamics, look back to who carried these precincts in 2020; crossovers can be further broken down as either Biden/Trump/Gallego or Trump/Trump/Gallego.
Key Demographics | Biden/Trump/Gallego Precincts | Trump/Trump/GallegoPrecincts | Arizona Statewide |
Hispanic Population | 32% | 25% | 32% |
College Attainment | 35% | 40% | 34% |
Fifty-nine of Arizona’s crossover precincts voted for Joe Biden in 2020, then flipped to Trump in 2024 while also voting for Gallego. Worth 140,000 votes, these Biden/Trump/Gallego precincts resemble the state overall, with many located in Hispanic and working-class communities.
Gallego’s campaign specifically aimed to attract working-class Latinos, including by hosting multiple watch parties in Glendale for boxing matches. Such outreach allowed him to punch above Harris’s weight in other communities west of Phoenix, like Buckeye and El Mirage.
In the remaining 101 crossover precincts, voters backed Trump in both 2020 and 2024 but also split for Gallego. These Trump/Trump/Gallego precincts tended to be whiter and wealthier, with higher levels of college attainment: think the East Valley, like Chandler, Gilbert, Scottsdale, and Paradise Valley. These are some of Arizona’s largest cities, making Trump/Trump/Gallego precincts worth over 250,000 votes statewide.
These voters tend to prefer traditional Republicans over MAGA candidates — and will even vote for a Democrat if the Republican is too far to the right. The 1st Congressional District, which covers Scottsdale and Paradise Valley, is a perfect case study. There are 37 Trump/Gallego precincts, more than in any other district. GOP Rep. Dave Schweikert won re-election in 2024 by 4 points. Trump won it by three. And, in her matchup with Gallego, Lake lost it by five.
These same trends show up around Tucson, the state’s second largest metro. In Pima County, 20 of 23 crossover precincts were Trump/Trump/Gallego — they tended to be whiter and more educated, located in affluent Tucson suburbs such as Tanque Verde or Oro Valley.
Just north, among the 11 crossover precincts in Pinal County were Hispanic communities in Casa Grande and Maricopa — Biden/Trump/Gallego turf with relatively more working-class voters. All the way west in Yuma County, seven of eight crossover precincts were Trump flips from 2020, as Gallego generally trailed Biden while still outpacing Harris.
No matter where you look, demographics explain many of these patterns. Gallego overperformed more in heavily Hispanic precincts — especially those that split their vote.
Even after accounting for race and other factors like education and income, Gallego still ran about 2 points ahead of Harris on average in crossover precincts compared to non-crossovers. This suggests that other forces, possibly less tangible ones like candidate fit or targeted campaigning in the swingiest areas, also played a role. Perhaps those boxing match watch parties really were a knockout.
But it wasn’t all about Gallego; the Senate race did feature another candidate. For her part, Lake failed to attract the same goodwill as Gallego. Our August AZPOP found her popularity at 37% favorable, 53% unfavorable. Portending Lake’s eventual losses in areas narrowly carried by Trump, her net rating dropped to -18 in Pima County, -20 among suburban voters, and -27 with college graduates.
It also didn't help that some Arizona Republicans skipped voting for Lake entirely. According to analysis from Brookings, only 90% of Trump voters in Arizona cast a ballot for Lake — meaning many others selected only Trump and left the rest of the ballot blank.
This “bullet voting” often contributes to split-ticket outcomes, especially as traditional ticket splitting has declined in recent elections. Between 2016 and 2020, only one state (Maine) chose a different party for president than Senate in the same election cycle. Yet in 2024 this happened four times: Senate Democrats in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin all made it, even as Kamala Harris fell short.
By assembling a diverse coalition of working-class and college-educated, white and Hispanic voters, Gallego was arguably the most successful. He overcame the largest margin to win, and this was Arizona’s first split presidential/Senate result since 1988.
It's natural to wonder what this could mean for 2026 or 2028. Will these voters split their tickets again, or was this a one-time bloc? Looking back further, some of the crossover precincts in 2024 previously flipped from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020, and many have ping-ponged between both parties in other statewide contests like governor and treasurer. Going forward, the swingiest areas will almost surely continue to see-saw — especially when the Trump effect is no longer on the ballot.
* We narrowed the analysis to only consider precincts with populations of at least 25 voting-age residents, based on 2023 ACS figures, while also casting votes without a tie in all three contests (2020 President, 2024 President, 2024 Senate).
Contact us for a free consultation and explore how we can drive success with data-driven strategies, predictive insights, and research that matters.
Follow us on Twitter, sign up for our Newsletters and Press Releases, and add us on LinkedIn to stay connected.
