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Trump Leads Biden in Nevada, Outperforms Down-Ballot Republicans

Updated: May 8

Nevada Non-Partisans Lean Towards Trump

PHOENIX (March 14, 2024)- Donald Trump is currently enjoying plurality support from Nevada voters in the 2024 presidential election, according to recent public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Nevada Public Opinion Pulse (NVPOP). NPI used this polling data to explore the key factors supporting Trump’s lead in The Silver State.


This NVPOP, conducted from February 27 – March 5, 2024, surveyed 829 registered voters in Nevada, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.4%. 


Presidential Matchups

With a matchup between Trump and Biden now officially set, Trump starts in the lead. In a head-to-head with Biden, Trump leads by 5 points. When adding Robert F Kennedy Jr, Cornel West, and Jill Stein into the mix, his lead grows to +7.


march 2024 nvpop presidential matchups


Why Trump is Winning

While partisans are remaining loyal to their respective party’s candidate, the voters who are the closest to the middle prefer Trump. In Nevada, registered Non-partisans/Independents are the plurality of the electorate, and Trump is winning them over by double digits.


march 2024 nvpop trump v. biden by party


But it’s not just registered Non-partisans/Independents. Trump is also winning True Independents – that is, voters registered as something other than Democrat or Republican who, when asked if they lean Democrat or lean Republican, said “neither.” This small but mighty group often swings elections, and Trump currently has one-third (34%) of them in his court.


“At this point in the election year, this NVPOP data may act as a warning sign – that, even when the primary is over, and the choice is a clear head-to-head, Nevadans want Trump just a little more than Biden,” said NPI Chief of Research, David Byler.


Looking at Biden

Independents aren’t Biden’s only struggle. When voters are given a third – or fourth, or fifth – option, Biden slips further. On top of that, Nevadans’ view Trump more favorably than Biden. Trump currently sits at a net favorability rating of -10 (42% favorable, 52% unfavorable) while Biden’s net favorability is -18 (38% favorable, 56% unfavorable), and his job approval even lower at net -25 (36% approve, 61% disapprove).


That being said, there are signs of hope for Biden yet. Democrats are stronger than Republicans outside the presidential race.


march 2024 nvpop generic congressional ballot


In a generic congressional race, Nevada voters prefer a Democrat slightly more than a Republican candidate.


David Byler noted, “Biden is in less-than-ideal shape, but Nevada’s DNA is light blue. There could be some extra strength for Biden there.”


Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from February 27 – March 5, 2024 from a Nevada statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 829 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.4%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. 

Media Contact:

Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights,, (602) 390-5248

About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly O.H. Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at


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