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Statewide Unity in Supporting Ukraine

Updated: Jun 5

Support for Ukraine a Divisive Issue with Arizona’s GOP


PHOENIX (June 5, 2024)- In April, President Joe Biden signed into law a $95 billion foreign aid package and immediately approved sending Ukraine $1 billion in military assistance. Early-May public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) took a temperature check on the Arizona electorate’s opinions on what the U.S. should do regarding providing financial support to Ukraine in its conflict with Russia.

 

This AZPOP, conducted from May 7–14, 2024, surveyed 1,003 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.09%. 

 

The May AZPOP found that a 57% majority of Arizona voters support either the same or increased levels of funding for Ukraine, showcasing a commitment to supporting the country’s aid to Ukraine. About one-quarter (27%) of Arizona voters believe the U.S. should reduce allocated funds towards Ukraine. Most notably, a resounding 0% endorsed the idea of diverting any aid from Ukraine to Russia.

 


may 2024 azpop support for ukraine funding

“Arizonans are pretty much pro-Ukraine – or at least anti-Russia,” said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research.

Majorities of Democrats (74%) and Independents (53%), as well as a 47% plurality of Republicans, favor continued aid to Ukraine with the same or higher funding. However, a sizable share of Republicans (37%) and Independents (28%) want to see a decrease in financial support for Ukraine.

 


may 2024 azpop support for ukraine aid by gop factions

 

The U.S.’s financial support for Ukraine is a divisive issue within the Republican Party. Conservative Republicans and Trump-first Republicans (45% each) favor reducing aid to Ukraine more so than maintaining or increasing funding (conservative Republicans: 41%, Trump-first: 38%). Conversely, Republicans who prioritize the party over Trump (56%) and moderate Republicans (60%) support current or higher levels of aid, while 32% and 20%, respectively, prefer scaling back aid.

 


may 2024 azpop support for ukraine aid by party

“Of course Republicans are split on Ukraine,” said Byler. “The GOP contains old foreign policy hawks, an increasingly isolationist pro-Trump wing, and voters who will jump at the chance to cut any spending. Trump has two tough options: try to synthesize these contradictory views – or pick a position, anger one wing of his party, and then try to win them back with some other issue. Neither option is easy.”


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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from May 7–14, 2024 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 1,003 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.09%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. 


Media Contact:

Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248

Sydney Evenson, Noble Predictive Insightss.evenson@npredictive.com, (602) 350-1065


About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly O.H. Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.


About the AZPOP: The Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) serves statewide polls to 800-1,000 Arizona registered voters, with opportunities to include a sub-sample of likely voters in the state. Deploying quarterly surveys, the AZPOP paints a high-definition picture of the perceptions, opinions, and future decisions of voters to provide meaningful and actionable insights on public affairs and voter sentiment.

Organizations and individuals can purchase customized questions to add to the end of any AZPOP poll, exclusive to them and not shared publicly (unless otherwise requested), getting the same critical, targeted information at a fraction of the cost of a comprehensive survey. Learn more about adding custom questions to the AZPOP here.

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