Kelly Leads Unnamed GOP Opponent, Brnovich Still Leads GOP Field, Ducey Entrance Would Be Significant
PHOENIX (February 1st, 2022)- Arizona is set to host a competitive election for U.S. Senate this November, with Democratic Senator Mark Kelly gearing up to defend the seat he grabbed from the GOP in 2020’s special election. While Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich continues to lead in the GOP Senate primary, the latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) conducted by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) suggests that Governor Doug Ducey would be a clear (but not prohibitive) favorite should he decide to run.
This AZPOP survey was conducted January 11th – January 13th, 2022 and surveyed 855 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of +/-3.4%
GOP Senate Primary
With no statistically significant change from November’s AZPOP for any GOP candidates, Mark Brnovich maintains his lead with support from one-quarter (25%) of Republican voters. Retired Air Force Major General Michael McGuire comes in at a distant second with 11%. All other candidates register in single digits, and nearly half of Republican voters (47%) remain undecided.
Some of the most interesting results of this survey are on the candidate who isn’t in the race: Gov. Doug Ducey. Ducey has received pressure from national and state Republican leaders to enter the Senate race but has made it clear that he has no intention of running. Nevertheless, this poll finds that a Ducey candidacy would shake up the race: he would earn 35% support from GOP voters, and Brnovich’s support would plummet to 13%.
Though he has made an endorsement in the race for Arizona Governor, former President Donald Trump has so far stayed on the sidelines in the Senate race. This could be a potential reason why GOP voters are struggling to make much of an ideological distinction between the candidates: more than half (55%) are unsure which candidate is the most conservative.
“Brnovich remains the frontrunner, but ‘what if’s like, ‘what if Ducey decides to run?’ or, ‘what if Trump decides to endorse a candidate?’ could really change the current dynamic of the GOP Primary,” said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research. “It makes a lot of sense now why Republican Leadership has been actively pursuing Ducey to run in the Arizona Senate contest.”
Kelly Leads Unnamed GOP Candidate
Democratic Sen. Kelly is having to navigate a reelection campaign in a political environment where voters are turning their frustrations with President Biden to other Democratic leaders and candidates. At this point in the race, the freshman Senator still clings to a narrow lead against a generic Republican candidate. Kelly earns 42% support while the unnamed Republican polls at 38% in a general election matchup.
Four in five (80%) Republican voters say they would support the Republican nominee, and likewise for Democrats in their support for Mark Kelly. But once again, we continue to see signs that Independent voters will be instrumental in deciding Kelly’s fate: 35% of them are still unsure how they plan to vote in the Senate race.
“Arizona voters should prepare themselves to be bombarded with millions of dollars in mailers, attack ads, and robocalls,” said Mike Noble. “With the Senate evenly divided, both parties will be spending big bucks in the Grand Canyon state this fall.”
Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from January 11th to January 13th, 2022 from an Arizona Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the registered voter population by gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to a recent voter file derived from the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office and recent Census data. The sample size was 855 registered voters in Arizona, with a MoE of ± 3.4%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to elevate the world around us by empowering decision-makers with digestible data and actionable insights that translate to data-based solutions. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly O.H. Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.