Recreational Marijuana Faces Up-Hill Battle in Ariz. This NovemberPresidential election turnout will be a factor on pot success or failure
PHOENIX (September 6, 2016) — Recreational Marijuana will be on the ballot in Arizona this November, which will be one of the more controversial issues voters will be asked to decide upon. As of early September, the Yes vote still has an up-hill battle, according to a recent poll conducted by leading behavior research polling company, OH Predictive Insights.
In a survey of 728 likely Democrat, Republican, Independent and Non-Declared voters across Arizona based on projected 2016 general election turnout, legalizing recreational marijuana is still underwater by 11 points. OH Predictive Insights polled this exact same question and issue on June 20, 2016, with similar results. The company again polled on the issue, including insight from live callers to hit younger demographics and cell phone users.2016 Arizona General ElectionJune 20, 2016 ResultsAug 24-27, 2016 ResultsYes39%40%No53%51%Undecided/Refused8%9%
*Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding
Voters in at least five states will decide whether to legalize marijuana for recreational use this November. Ballot initiatives on the question are set to appear in front of voters in Arizona, California, Maine, Massachusetts and Nevada this year. Alaska, Colorado, Oregon, and Washington state have already legalized recreational usage, as well as medical marijuana for adults.
“As of right now, the pro side is down 14 points with females, tied with Independents 45/45 and losing Republicans by two-thirds,” Mike Noble, managing partner of OH Predictive Insights and chief pollster, said. “It is interesting to point out that for every voter who pulls the lever for Donald Trump this November has a 72 percent likelihood they will vote ‘No’ on legalizing recreational Marijuana. Conversely, Hillary Clinton voters have a 57 percent likelihood of voting ‘Yes’ on legalizing recreational Marijuana.”
“Presidential turnout will be a key factor on whether or not pot gets legalized in Arizona,” Noble said. “If you see Hillary and Bob Marley on the same campaign T-shirt this year, that is your clue you are in Arizona.”
Methodology: This survey employed live callers and automated phones which was completed by OH Predictive Insights on August 25-27, 2016, from a 2016 general election sample. The sample size was 728 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 3.63% with 23% cell phones/ 77% landlines.
The June survey was conducted with automated calls which was completed by OH Predictive Insights on June 20, 2016, from a 2016 general election sample. The sample size was 1,060 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 3.01%.
About OH Predictive Insights With Owens Harkey Advertising’s marketing and creative service resources coupled with OH Strategic Communication’s unparalleled messaging and strategic planning expertise, OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics and advanced targeted marketing. Leading Arizona pollster Michael Noble from MBQF Consulting brings proprietary social statistics software and services to OH Predictive Insights providing clients with tools to solve their most challenging problems. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-254-5159.