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POLL: Kelly Flies by McSally in Q3

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                               August 20th, 2019

POLL: Kelly Flies by McSally in Q3

Former Astronaut Mark Kelly Gained 6-points on Sen. McSally Since May – Now Leading by 5-Points

PHOENIX (Aug 20th, 2019) – Sen. Martha McSally is defending her seat in the upcoming 2020 election and the latest poll Arizona Public Opinion Poll (AZPOP) shows former astronaut Mark Kelly flying past McSally – setting up a race that could be just as close as the one that ended in November.

Kelly leads McSally by five points, 46-41. The survey was conducted on August 13 and August 14, with a sample of 600 respondents identified as likely voters. The medium utilized was a blended phone survey yielding a +/-4% MOE.

The August numbers show a shift from the last poll conducted in May that showed McSally with a narrow 1-point lead over Kelly (45/44).

“Both are former fighter pilots although if our latest poll is any indication – astronauts fly higher than pilots, ” said Mike Noble, Chief of Research and Managing Partner of Phoenix-based research company OH Predictive Insights. “We are still in August 2019 and the Arizona Senate race is already exciting – expect the numbers to start moving when these two fundraising juggernauts start spending heavy and hard.”

The most interesting dynamic to watch in this early-developing Senate race is that McSally is defined and Kelly still has room to grow.  The chart below shows McSally and Kelly’s favorability breakdown.

Martha McSally is still popular overall, with 47% of respondents having a favorable opinion compared to only 45% of those who see her unfavorably. That is a +2 Net-Favorability rating, 92% having an opinion with only 8% not having an opinion.  McSally was +11 Net-Favorability back in May which is a 9-point shift.

Mark Kelly is popular although approximately one-third of respondents do not have an opinion or never heard of him (31%).  Kelly has a +19 Net-Favorability rating, 69% have an opinion of the former Astronaut while 44% view him favorably and 25% unfavorably.

When looking at their favorability by region McSally is +2 overall in Maricopa County, -14 in Pima County and +14 in Rural Arizona.  Kelly is +26 overall in Maricopa County, +22 in Pima County and -1 in Rural Arizona.

Kelly leads by 9-points (48/39) over McSally in Maricopa County and is ahead of McSally by 14-points (52/38) in Pima County.  However, McSally remains ahead in Rural Arizona by 10-points (47/37).

What is interesting is the fact that McSally is +2 in total favorability in Maricopa County although once the head-to-head matchup is injected she trails Kelly by 9-points in that region.  Roughly 6 out of every 10 likely statewide voters are in Maricopa County. In the last decade, only one statewide campaign lost Maricopa and Pima county and still won statewide.

Conclusion: Maricopa County is the key to winning statewide office in Arizona.


Methodology: This blended poll was conducted via live caller and IVR. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on August 13, 2019, and August 14, 2019, from an Arizona likely 2020 General Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, gender, region, and age. The sample size was 600 completed surveys, with an MoE of ± 4%. Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding.

Media Contacts:   Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights,, (480) 313-1837

Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights,, (602) 402-5181



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