FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE December 12, 2017
POLL: GOP Primary for Rep. Trent Franks’ Seat Wide-Open
Trump support can be the deciding factor for who wins, Franks’ support a double-edged sword
PHOENIX (December 12, 2017) – Nationally politicians and iconic personalities have been ousted for sexual harassment. Arizona’s longest tenured GOP Congressman, Trent Franks, who represents a safe GOP district resigned suddenly due to allegations of inappropriate behavior. This has triggered a special election that Gov. Doug Ducey called for February 27th, 2018 making it a mad dash to determine who will replace him.
In a heavy GOP district, there is no shortage of candidates interested to fill the vacant congressional seat. ABC15 Arizona and OH Predictive Insights teamed up to find out who has the upper hand and the current state of the race.
We conducted an IVR survey with a sample consisting of 400 Republican and Republican leaning Independent likely 2018 GOP Special Election voters in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District. The margin of error on the sample came to +/-4.89%.
The survey looked at the current list of Republicans who are either looking closely at the race or have already announced they are running to see where they stack up.
A key indicator for a winning campaign among a crowded field is not just being known, but being known AND liked so we ranked the list by the people with the highest net favorable name identification to lowest positive name ID.
Former Arizona Corporation Commissioner, Bob Stump, led the group in both name ID and net favorable name ID of 29%. Maricopa County Supervisor, Clint Hickman, had lower name ID, however, made up ground given voter opinion of him is predominantly favorable at a net positive of 26%. Current Arizona State Senator, Debbie Lesko, came in at third place with the second highest name ID at 58% although only a net positive of 18% for favorability. Coming in fourth place is Arizona State Senator, Kimberly Yee, who has the lowest name ID of the top 4 people surveyed. The remaining people tested are just barely on the radar with likely GOP special election voters.
Additionally, we also asked respondents to give us their preference if the election were held today.
Just over 1/3rd of the likely GOP Special Election voters are undecided if the election were held today, however, the top-three of the horse race are Bob Stump, Debbie Lesko and Clint Hickman. Kimberly Yee is floating in the middle and the remaining 5 people are between 1% – 2%. The top-three are all within the margin of error of one another so the race is on to attract the undecided voters to break out from the pack.
President Trump has not been shy about weighing in on key GOP races so we tested the potential impact of a Trump endorsement and what Trent Franks’ endorsement would translate to in this particular GOP Special Election.
President Donald Trump’s endorsement would be a huge advantage. Among the likely GOP Special Election voters, they are more likely to support a Trump endorsed candidate by a 3:1 margin.
Franks’ endorsement on the other hand should be viewed as a double-edged sword. As of today, 44% of likely GOP Special Election voters are more likely to support with 33% less likely.
“The AZ-08 race is the modern-day equivalent to the Hunger Games – a mad dash to secure support, raise a pile of money and capture those undecided voters,” said Mike Noble, managing partner and chief pollster at OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based leading behavioral research polling company. “The real x-factor here is whether or not President Trump tips the scales to a candidate in the race which would be a game changer.”
“Sit back, buckle up and get ready to watch a rare special election in Arizona’s 8th Congressional district,” said Noble.
Methodology: This automated survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on December 11th, 2017, from a likely 2018 GOP Special Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation and gender, however, age leaned heavily towards 55+ respondent’s due to the survey medium. The margin of error is of ± 4.89%.
Media Contact: Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, m.noble@OHpredictive.com, 480-313-1837
About OH Predictive Insights
Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-254-5159.