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Poll: Former Astronaut Mark Kelly Hot on Sen. McSally’s Six

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                               May 13th, 2019

Dogfight in the Desert

Former Astronaut Mark Kelly Hot on Sen. McSally’s Six

PHOENIX (May 13th, 2019) – Sen. Martha McSally is defending her seat in the upcoming 2020 cycle and the latest poll shows pilot Mark Kelly is closing in on McSally – setting up a race that could be just as close as the one that ended in November.

McSally leads Kelly by a single point, 45-44. The survey was conducted May 1 and May 2, with a sample of 600 respondents identified as likely voters. The medium utilized was a blended phone survey yielding a +/-4% MoE.

The May numbers closely resemble the last poll conducted in February that showed McSally with a narrow 2-point lead over Kelly (46/44).

“In this dogfight between two former military pilots, Mark Kelly is on Sen. McSally’s six and closing, ” said Mike Noble, Chief of Research and Managing Partner of Phoenix-based research company OH Predictive Insights. “The 2020 race between these two Top Guns promises to be just as expensive and hard-fought as the senatorial election the Grand Canyon State saw in 2018.”

The most interesting dynamic to watch in this early-developing Senate race is that McSally is defined and Kelly is so far a blank slate. Put simply, will Kelly define himself or will he be defined by his opponent? The chart below shows McSally and Kelly’s favorability breakdown.

Martha McSally is still popular overall, with 51% of respondents having a total favorable opinion compared to only 40% of those who see her unfavorably. That is a +11 Net-Favorability rating, 91% name ID with only 9% not having an opinion. Mark Kelly is popular although approximately one-third of respondents do not have an opinion or never heard of him. Kelly has a +22 Net-Favorability rating, 62% name ID with only 20% viewing him unfavorably.


Methodology: This blended poll was conducted via live caller and IVR. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on May 1, 2019, and May 2, 2019, from an Arizona likely 2020 General Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, gender, region, and age. The sample size was 600 completed surveys, with an MoE of ± 4%. Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding.

Media Contacts: Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights,, (480) 313-1837

Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights,, (602) 687-3034

About OH Predictive Insights: Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-402-5181 or submit a request online.



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