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POLL: Arizona Voters Don’t Want Politicians Regulating Abortion Access

Updated: Jun 12

Plurality of Republicans Oppose Potential Ballot Measure

PHOENIX (June 11, 2024)- The latest data from Noble Predictive Insights’ Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) finds that the Arizona electorate is tuned in to abortion issues in the state, and they don’t want politicians regulating abortion rights.


Abortion is an increasingly pressing issue in the Arizona Legislature this year and surrounding the upcoming November 5th election, and Arizona voters are paying attention.


In April, the Arizona Supreme Court ruled to uphold the 1864 near-total ban on abortions, but the Legislature and courts have since nullified that law, and the state’s ban on abortions after the 15th week of pregnancy is still in effect.


It’s been rumored that Republican lawmakers intend to push anti-abortion referrals to be added to the November ballot.

Potential Measure: Politicians Regulating Abortion


A ballot measure that would give politicians the ability to regulate abortion rights is broadly unpopular among Arizona voters – only one-quarter would support such a measure. A majority of voters (52%) would oppose it and just under a quarter are unsure. Of those with abortion in their top three issues, 69% said they would oppose the measure.

may 2024 azpop regulating abortion ballot measure

“Arizonans are generally averse to handing politicians more regulatory power over voters – we see that pretty clearly with this potential ballot measure,” said Mike Noble, Noble Predictive Insights Founder & CEO.


Perhaps against conventional wisdom, a plurality of Republicans would oppose this measure (37%) while only 34% of Republicans said they would support the measure, with Party-first Republicans leading the group (39%), followed by conservatives (35%), and Trump-first Republicans (34%).


Democrats, on the other hand, are far more unified – a 71% majority would oppose this measure with only 18% in support of it. Liberals (72%), Party-first Democrats (72%), and Biden-first Democrats (71%) lead the opposition. Additionally, 50% of Independents also said they would oppose this measure, 23% would support it, and 27% remain unsure.


“The bottom line: Democrats see abortion as one of the key issues in 2024, and the pro-choice side is currently winning on this ballot measure,” said Mike Noble.



Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from May 7–14, 2024 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 1,003 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.09%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. 

Media Contact:

Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights,, (602) 390-5248

Sydney Evenson, Noble Predictive, (602) 350-1065

About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly O.H. Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at

About the AZPOP: The Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) serves statewide polls to 800-1,000 Arizona registered voters, with opportunities to include a sub-sample of likely voters in the state. Deploying quarterly surveys, the AZPOP paints a high-definition picture of the perceptions, opinions, and future decisions of voters to provide meaningful and actionable insights on public affairs and voter sentiment.

Organizations and individuals can purchase customized questions to add to the end of any AZPOP poll, exclusive to them and not shared publicly (unless otherwise requested), getting the same critical, targeted information at a fraction of the cost of a comprehensive survey. Learn more about adding custom questions to the AZPOP here.


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