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NPI Nevada Poll of Record Proves Accurate, Cements NPI as Nevada's Top Pollster

Updated: Jun 25

Nevada GOP Senate Primary Election Results Correctly Predicted

PHOENIX (June 13, 2024)- As unofficial results from Nevada’s 2024 primaries are finalized, Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) poll of record has correctly predicted the outcome of Nevada’s GOP Senate primary.


This Nevada Public Opinion Pulse (NVPOP) poll of record, conducted from June 4–5, 2024, surveyed 424 likely Republican primary voters in Nevada, yielding a margin of error of ±4.8%.


In NPI’s poll of record, conducted one week before Election Day and before Trump endorsed Brown at his rally in Las Vegas, results showed a 38-point lead for military veteran Sam Brown over former Ambassador to Iceland Jeff Gunter in the GOP Senate primary, with Brown at 53% and Gunter at 15%. Current unofficial results confirm our prediction – Sam Brown wins the primary with 59.6% (as of June 12, 5:00pm), and Gunter took the exact 15% we projected.

june 2024 nv por predictions vs actuals

*Note: reporting is still in progress with 95% of expected votes in

The poll of record showed that 8% were undecided one week out from Election Day –  before Trump announced his endorsement of Brown. Trump’s endorsement likely swayed that last segment of undecided voters to Brown. In past primaries, Trump has used late endorsements to deliver modest boosts to his preferred candidate. That, combined with the general tendency of undecided primary voters to break for the frontrunner, almost certainly pushed Brown’s vote share upwards.  


“Nevada is a notoriously hard state to poll, and a low turnout primary there is even harder. But we’ve been polling Nevada for a while now. We know the state and we trust our methods, so we didn’t shy away from this race,” said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. “We nailed Gunter's vote share, and we were very close on Brown. Any difference between our prediction and the result can be explained by late momentum from Trump's endorsement and the movement of undecided voters.” Byler added: “The big picture: we had an accurate view of what Nevada Republicans were thinking when nobody else did.”


Other public pollsters bypassed this difficult race – turnout is uncertain in state primaries, Trump’s endorsement didn’t arrive until the last minute, and primary voters tend to move quickly. In fact, the only other publicly released poll within two weeks of Election Day showed Gunter +1. NPI is also the only nonpartisan pollster to release polling on this race. The current results (Brown +45) show that NPI has our finger on the pulse of the Nevada electorate.


The wrap-up of the 2024 primary election once again proves the value of having a pollster who knows the ins and outs of the local electorate and sound methodology with a proven track record for accuracy. This NPI poll of record – the first of the 2024 election cycle – is a strong start, and marks a continuation of successes from the previous cycle. NPI was ranked the #11 most accurate pollster and #4 for lowest average bias in the nation (#1 in the Southwest region for both) in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight.


“As long as we’re around, Nevadans and key decision-makers in the state will not be deprived of consistent and accurate public opinion data,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. 


NPI has boots on the ground with some of our analysts residing in Nevada – we have vested interest here. Nevada should expect to see more of Noble Predictive Insights as we continue to bring consistent, accurate polling and insights to The Silver State leading up to November’s General Election. Learn more about NPI’s polling in Nevada here.



Methodology: This poll was conducted via SMS text (87%) and IVR (13%). The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from June 4-5, 2024, from a Nevada statewide Republican likely voter sample (frequent primary voters and Republicans registered after the 2022 primary sourced from recent voter file data using random selection). The sample size was 424 likely Republican primary voters, yielding a MoE of ±4.8%. The sample was weighted by age, gender, ethnicity, and county to reflect the projected Nevada Republican primary electorate according to statistics derived from the voter file, as well as recent census data. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Non-response, coverage error, and other factors may also contribute to error.


Media Contact:

Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive, (602) 390-5248

Sydney Evenson, Noble Predictive, (602) 350-1065


About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (480) 313-1837 or visit our website at

About the NVPOP: The Nevada Public Opinion Pulse (NVPOP) serves statewide polls to 800 Nevada registered voters, with opportunities to include a sub-sample of likely voters in the state. The NVPOP paints a high-definition picture of the perceptions, opinions, and future decisions of voters to provide meaningful and actionable insights on public affairs and voter sentiment.

Organizations and individuals can purchase customized questions to add to the end of any NVPOP poll, exclusive to them and not shared publicly (unless otherwise requested), getting the same critical, targeted information at a fraction of the cost of a comprehensive survey. Learn more about adding custom questions to the NVPOP here.


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