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No Significant Leads in a 2024 Presidential Election among AZ

Updated: Aug 7, 2023

Arizona Democrats are Split on Whether Biden should Re-Run

PHOENIX (February 23, 2023)- The 2020 presidential election was the first time in over two decades years that a president was not re-elected for a second term. This anomaly begs the question, “will we see the same happen in 2024?” In anticipation for the 2024 presidential election, O.H. Predictive Insights (OHPI) latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) took an early look at Arizona voter sentiment to gauge Joe Biden’s current standing – as well as his foreseen competition – in his bid for a second term.

This AZPOP, conducted from January 31 – February 9, 2023, surveyed 1,000 registered voters in Arizona and had a margin of error of ± 3.1%.

Biden v. Trump

More than one year from election day, 39% of Arizona voters would support Biden, 37% would go for Trump, and one-quarter are undecided. Neither 2020 presidential nominee currently has an iron grip on the support from their party. However, a 2020 rematch would cause most partisans to ignore those misgivings.

A bare majority of Republicans (53%) are certain there is room for Donald Trump in today’s GOP, but nearly one-third (30%) say there is no room for him. For the current President, equal shares of Democrats want (35%) and do not want (38%) Joe Biden to run for re-election in 2024.

If next year’s general election came down, yet again, to Trump v. Biden, partisans would retreat to their corners and back their party’s candidate – setting the stage for another razor-thin margin. The poll found that 72% of Republicans would back Trump and 77% of Democrats would support Biden.

biden v trump by party

Only 10% of Republicans and 7% of Democrats would back the other party’s nominee. Independents, characteristically, are riding the fence with 35% supporting Biden, 28% supporting Trump, and 4 in 10 (38%) undecided in a hypothetical rematch.

Voters of both parties do not consider themselves tied to a candidate. Half (52%) of Republican voters consider themselves Republicans before Trump supporters, and 61% of Democratic voters consider themselves Democrats before Biden supporters.

“Especially considering how close the 2020 election was between Trump and Biden, it’s not surprising to see them neck and neck this far ahead of the 2024 presidential,” said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research. “There will be a lot of work to do in Arizona to win over enough voters to secure a victory come next November, especially given the state’s battleground status.”

Biden v. DeSantis

If the 2024 presidential election was DeSantis v. Biden, the tables would be slightly turned. Although a statistical tie, DeSantis leads Biden by 1 point with 36% of Arizona voters supporting the rumored Trump competitor and 35% backing Biden.

Partisan support in a Biden v. DeSantis match-up follows a similar pattern as what was seen with Biden v. Trump. However, Independents swing in the opposite direction in a DeSantis v. Biden match-up.

Republicans are still trepidatious about DeSantis – two-thirds would back him in an election against Biden while 72% backed Trump in the same hypothetical. Independents, however, are warmer to DeSantis than Trump. DeSantis leads Biden among Independents 34% to 29%, while Trump trailed 28% to Biden’s 35% in their match-up.

“Independents are middle-of-the-road voters by nature, and it’s not always easy to know which party they are more likely to support,” said Noble. “What this data tells me is that, as of now, Arizona Independents are slightly more in favor of DeSantis than the current President.”


Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by O.H. Predictive Insights from January 31st, 2023 – February 9th, 2023 from an Arizona Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 1,000 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 3.1%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Media Contacts:

Veronica Sutliff, OH Predictive Insights,, (602) 390-5248

About OH Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike looking to improve their footing with key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call (602) 362-5694 or submit a request online at


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