McSally Closes in to Striking Distance Against Kelly
Kelly now leading by only 5
PHOENIX (August 11th, 2020)- Martha McSally continues to narrow the gap in the Arizona Senate Race against Democrat Mark Kelly, according to a poll by OH Predictive Insights.
According to the most recent Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) – a monthly tracking survey of Arizona likely voters– McSally now trails the former Astronaut by 5 percent. This continues a trend of the Senator slowly but surely making up ground over the course of the past few months. In July, Kelly was leading McSally by 9 points, but in May, his lead was as large as 13 points.
Interestingly, though the gap in this race shrunk from July to August, Martha McSally’s level of support remained unchanged – 43% of voters in both polls preferred her over Kelly. What has changed is the number of those supporting Mark Kelly. Kelly fell from 52% in July to just 48% now – the first time since March he has earned less than 50% in an AZPOP survey.
One of the main drivers narrowing the race is the negative advertising coming from McSally and Republican-aligned groups like the National Republican Senatorial Committee, mostly centering on Kelly’s business ties to a Chinese company.
“The spending by McSally and the NRSC over the past few months seems to have started taking its toll on Mark Kelly’s relatively high favorability,” says OHPI Chief, Mike Noble, “Something the McSally campaign desperately needed given her own ever-decreasing favorability numbers.”
McSally also appears to be closing the gap among independent voters. In July, Kelly was outperforming her almost 2:1 (59% to 32%). Now, his lead is still double digits but has been cut in half. Kelly leads McSally among this group of voters 47% to 34% and 15% are undecided. Although the 12-point decrease in Kelly’s support has not translated to a similar increase in McSally’s, the fact that a sizable portion of once-Kelly-supporting Independents are now undecided is a phenomenon to watch.
“If McSally continues on her current flight path, she has a shot at winning this election,” says Jacob Joss, OHPI Data Analyst.
Methodology: This poll was conducted as a blended phone survey 37.2% Live Caller/ 62.9% IVR. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from August 3rd to August 4th, 2020 from an Arizona 2020 Likely Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education level. The sample size was 603 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4.0%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Note: a change was made in the sample methodology of the AZPOP between June and July 2020 to better reflect the state of Arizona’s voter composition.
About OH Predictive Insights: Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-362-5694 or submit a request online.