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Comparisons of changes in statewide races, from September 5 to now.

Steve Gaynor leads Secretary of State race.

Gaynor is leading among those with a college degree by 29 points (52-33%), which propels him into a convincing lead.

Kimberly Yee leads Arizona Treasurer race.

Democrat Mark Manoil is losing Independents, with undecideds remaining the same as in an OHPI poll conducted on September 5. Kimberly Yee gained those Independents.

Mark Brnovich leads Attorney General race.

January Contreras is losing 5 points and Brnovich is gaining 6 points. Since our latest poll, Contreras’ base of voters is leaving and choosing Brnovich.

Frank Riggs leads Superintendent race.

This race remains the closest with 17% undecided. This is because only 78% of Republicans back Riggs.

Here is a more granular view of the change over time in first vote versus second vote of the Corporation Commission race.

There is very little party crossover and, while Independents vote a bit more Democratic (Kennedy first and then Sears), there are enough Republicans to keep Glassman and Olson ahead.

Quote from Chief Pollster and Managing Partner, Mike Noble.

 “The biggest takeaway regarding the recent statewide poll results reaffirms that the fate of Republicans is tethered to Donald Trump’s approval rating.”

“We are starting to see increases among the GOP statewide, due to the Republican base finally consolidating, which we haven’t seen all year.”

Methodology: This 42% landline and 58% cell phone poll was completed by OH Predictive Insights on October 1, 2018 and October 2, 2018, from a likely 2018 General Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, gender, region, and age. The sample size was 600 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4%. Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding. Poll report for the General Election poll can be viewed here.

Media Contact:  Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights,, 602-402-5181

John Cuthbert, ABC15 Arizona,, 602-803-2529

About OH Predictive Insights

Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-254-5159 or submit a request online.



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