Trump Hasn’t Sealed the Deal, But Biden is Losing Ground
PHOENIX (May 22, 2024)- Recent public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) has revealed that while former President Donald Trump isn’t gaining significant new support, Joe Biden is struggling to maintain his shrinking base in the critical battleground state of Arizona.
This AZPOP, conducted from May 7–14, 2024, surveyed 1,003 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.09%.
According to NPI polling, Donald Trump’s standing is lower than it was on Election Day 2020 or 2016. In 2020, he won 48.6% of the vote in Arizona. In 2016, he won 47.1%. The latest AZPOP shows him at 44%.
But Biden has a bigger problem: he’s lost even more ground than Trump.
This AZPOP shows Biden at a measly 41% of the vote – far below the 48.9% he won in 2020 or Hillary Clinton’s 43.6% showing in 2016. Moreover, an NPI poll from May of 2020 showed Biden at 50% percent of the vote. That poll – which sampled only likely voters – isn’t perfectly comparable to our latest registered voter poll. But, taken together, these data points show that Biden has lost ground in a way that Trump hasn’t.
And Biden’s slippage has allowed Trump to build a real lead.
Biden’s drop highlights the challenges the president faces in Arizona. During the 2020 election cycle, Biden’s support in NPI’s Arizona polls never fell below 44%. His current level of support – 41% – marks a low point for the president.
NPI Chief of Research David Byler said, “In 2020, Biden argued that he would be a ‘return to normalcy’ president – restoring competence and confidence to a nation in the throes of a pandemic and bitter partisan fighting. Biden’s problem: COVID-19 is gone, but normalcy isn’t back. Americans are worried about inflation and immigration – and, as a result, he’s lost ground in key swing states like Arizona.”
Impact of Third-Party Candidates
The presence of third-party candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. exacerbates Biden’s problem. RFK Jr.’s candidacy further reduces Biden’s voter support, while Trump’s support remains stable even with the presence of other candidates in the race.
Without RFK Jr. in the race: Trump leads Biden by 3 points (Trump 44%, Biden 41%)
With RFK Jr. in the race: Trump leads Biden by 7 points (Trump 43%, Biden 36%)
When added to the mix, RFK Jr. only captures 8% support. But, when forced to pick between Trump and Biden in a head-to-head, RFK Jr. supporters lean more towards Biden – while a majority (55%) remain unsure, 28% throw their support behind Biden and only 18% opt for Trump.
With RFK Jr. in the race, Trump’s overall support remains stable (1-point drop) and sees only marginal declines among key demographic groups:
· Among Republicans, Trump loses 3 points (84% to 81%)
· Among Independents, Trump’s support drops by 1 point (36% to 35%)
· Among 18-34-year-olds, Trump’s support drops by 1 point (38% to 37%)
RFK Jr.’s presence in the race hurts Biden more, causing his support to drop by 5 points (41% to 36%). Biden also experiences a substantial hit among key demographic groups:
· Among Democrats, Biden loses 7 points (84% to 77%)
· Among Independents, Biden’s support drops by 9 points (34% to 25%)
· Among 18–34-year-olds, Biden’s support drops by 8 points (43% to 35%)
According to NPI Chief of Research David Byler, “Democrats aren’t excited about another Biden candidacy – and RFK Jr.’s high support proves it. Right now, a chunk of Democrats, Independents, and young voters are willing to leave Biden for RFK Jr. And the 2024 election will turn, in part, on whether he can get them back.”
More good news for Trump: Arizona Republicans are choosing him over the GOP
Trump isn’t just winning in our general election matchup – he’s also gaining support within the state GOP.
For the first time in this election cycle, our data shows that more Republicans identify as supporters of Donald Trump (Trump-first Republicans) than as supporters of the Republican Party (Party-first Republicans) by a 10-point margin. Biden has no such hold on his party: most Democratic voters consistently think of themselves as supporters of the Democratic Party rather than Biden supporters.
“Arizona is really a three-party state. There are Democrats, moderate Republicans, and MAGA Republicans. Now that Trump has officially sewed up the GOP presidential nomination and is squarely facing off against Biden, his MAGA wing is gaining strength,” said Byler.
Either candidate could win this election. But, in Arizona, they face distinct challenges.
For Biden: Biden will need to find a strategy to make sure disillusioned Democrats come out to vote for him – and don’t defect to a third party. He also needs to win over persuadable voters. Remember that he won Arizona by less than 1 percentage point in 2020 – even a little bit of erosion could cost him the state.
For Trump: Trump’s strong support base and personal loyalty among Republicans place him in a strong position, and a crowded field works in his favor. Trump must maintain his appeal to Independents and young voters to remain in a competitive position. And, as the campaign heats up, he needs to make sure that his MAGA brand isn’t off-putting to the moderates who lifted Democrats like Mark Kelly, Kyrsten Sinema, and Katie Hobbs to statewide office.
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from May 7–14, 2024 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 1,003 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.09%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
Sydney Evenson, Noble Predictive Insights, s.evenson@npredictive.com, (602) 350-1065
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly O.H. Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.