Arizonans Are Weary of Direction of Both Nation and State
- Noble Predictive Insights
- Sep 12
- 5 min read
Updated: Sep 15
Partisan Divides Run Deep, but Skepticism Spans Parties and Ages
PHOENIX (September 15, 2025)- Across party lines, Arizona voters are uneasy about where things are headed, both nationally and closer to home. The latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) from Noble Predictive Insights finds muted confidence in the country and in the state, with many Arizonans seeing more headwinds than tailwinds, and they’re signaling a desire for leadership that can turn that perception around.
This AZPOP, conducted from August 11–18, 2025, surveyed 948 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.18%.
Arizona Trajectory
Arizona voters are completely SPLIT on the trajectory of the state – statistically the same since February.
Democrats believe the state is heading in the right direction (56%), Independents think we’re on the wrong track (55%), and Republicans lean slightly to the wrong direction (52%).
No group is overwhelmingly in love with the direction the state is heading – but none really hate it either.
Less affluent groups such as Hispanic/Latinos and lower-income voters are two of the most pessimistic groups – signs that the economy, inflation, jobs, etc., are having an impact on them.
“Arizona voters aren’t giving leaders a blank check – but they’re not writing them off either,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. “The mood is uncertainty, not enthusiasm.”
So, when looking ahead, Arizonans aren’t sure what to expect…what about when looking behind?
State-Level Pessimism Mirrors National Sentiment
Four years ago, Arizona was dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic, wildfires, and the Maricopa County ballot audit. Despite all that, most Arizona voters think things are better then than they are now. Just 33% of Republicans say the state is better, while that number drops to 24% of Independents and 19% of Democrats. On the flip side, 49% of Independents say Arizona is worse off, compared to 40% of Republicans and 37% of Democrats.
There is no major demographic group where a significantly larger share of voters think Arizona is better today. At best some groups are statistically tied:
Republicans: Worse -4
Post-grads: Worse -2
Parents of minor kids: Worse -1
AZ tenure < 5yrs: Better +1
Trump-first Republicans: Better +4
Evaluations of Arizona's direction showed remarkable consistency across generational lines. Across every age group, approximately one-quarter (23-31%) of voters said Arizona is better off, while about 40% in each group indicated the state is worse off. This consistency suggests that skepticism about Arizona's progress cuts across generational divides as well as partisan ones.
“It’s telling that even after the pandemic, wildfires, and ballot audits, voters still think Arizona was in a better shape four years ago than today,” said Noble.
So, Arizona had some bad headlines 4 years ago. What about the U.S., overall?
Partisan Divisions Define National Outlook
National headlines in 2021 were packed with political upheaval and social change – January 6, U.S. Afghanistan withdrawal, Texas Heartbeat bill, etc. There is one BIG difference in the U.S. today compared to 2021…and some voters are pretty happy about it.
When asked whether the United States is better or worse off than it was four years ago, Arizona voters' views fell largely along partisan lines, though pessimism dominated across most groups. Republicans showed the most positive assessment, with 65% saying the U.S. is better off compared to just 27% of Independents and 12% of Democrats who shared that view.
Groups most likely to think the U.S. is better off today than four years ago include nearly every GOP subgroup:
Republicans: Better +41
Trump-First: Better +66
Party-First: Better+28
2024 Trump Voters: Better+44
Conservatives: Trump +35
Democrats expressed the deepest pessimism about the country's direction, with 74% saying the nation is worse off than four years ago which is the most negative assessment of any political group. Independents also took a predominantly downbeat view, with 54% saying the country has declined over the past four years.
The generational divide proves equally telling in revealing Arizona voters' national outlook. Younger voters aged 18 to 29 showed the least optimism about the nation's trajectory, with only 23% saying the U.S. is better off while 53% believe it has gotten worse. Older voters aged 65 and above displayed similar patterns though with somewhat less sharp divisions, with 42% saying the country is better off and 50% saying it's worse off. Middle-aged groups fell between these extremes and remain net negative, with about half saying the country is worse off today than four years ago.
Mike Noble concluded, “Arizonans are signaling that they want to see tangible progress – whether it’s cost of living, housing, water, or the ability of leaders to work past gridlock, voters are looking for reasons to feel the state and the country are on a better path. Right now, they just don’t see it.”
Top Issues
So, the country and the state are off on the wrong track. What issues are driving this? As of the August AZPOP, Arizona voters are still mainly concerned about wallets and borders.
Independents are driving concern over affordable housing in Arizona (53% Top 3). Independent voters are at the forefront on issues such as housing, the unemployment rate, and the income gap, but they lag behind when it comes to taxes and inflation. Immigration concern is, predictably, driven by a strong 62% of Republicans, who also drive concern on inflation and taxes. Democrats care most about inflation, followed closely behind by affordable housing and healthcare.
“Although it is commonly believed that Independent voters tend to hold moderate views between the two main parties, the data indicates that unaffiliated voters often prioritize their own interests, leading rather than merely balancing the positions of the parties,” said Mike Noble.
This AZPOP took one step further and asked voters what issue they think gets too much attention. Overall, Arizonans believe immigration is one of the most important yet over-reported issues in the state. Republicans are sick of hearing about gender/sexuality politics; Democrats are tired of constant border talk; and Independents are fairly split down the middle between the two.
###
Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from August 11–18, 2025 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. The sample size was 948 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.18%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.
