Arizona Electorate Indicates Clinton Beating TrumpTrump Performs Well with Rural Populace, Poorly with Females
PHOENIX (June 22, 2016) —Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton is beating Republican front-runner Donald Trump in Arizona, according to a recent poll conducted by leading behavior research polling company, OH Predictive Insights.
In a survey of 1,060 likely Democrat, Republican, Independent and Non-Declared voters across Arizona based on projected 2016 general election turnout, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton is up 4.3 percent over Republican candidate Donald Trump.2016 Arizona General ElectionJune 20, 2016 ResultsHillary Clinton46.5%Donald Trump42.2%3rd Party Candidate5.8%Undecided5.6%
In the last six presidential contests, Arizona was won by a Republican five times. The last Democratic candidate to carry Arizona was Bill Clinton two decades ago in 1996.
“Different regions yielded different results for the candidates. Trump did better than Clinton by six points in rural Arizona while Clinton experienced a 17-point lead in Pima county. However, when it came to Maricopa county, both candidates were virtually tied,” Mike Noble, managing partner of OH Predictive Insights and chief pollster, said. “Clinton held a healthy 12-point advantage over Trump when it came to female respondents. However, it’s very surprising to think that Hillary Clinton may carry Arizona, a state that holds the narratives of SB1070, two nationally known anti-illegal immigration sheriffs, liberal gun laws and consistently conservative constituents.”
Wes Gullett, partner of OH Predictive Insights and GOP political consultant found it surprising that the race is not more competitive at this point. “It’s shocking to think that a Democratic presidential candidate would carry Arizona if the election were held today, considering that every statewide office in Arizona is held by a Republican as well as significant majorities in the Arizona House and Senate. Arizona should be a reliable red state,” Gullett said.
Methodology: This automated survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on June 20, 2016, from a 2016 general election sample. The sample size was 1,060 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 3.01%
About OH Predictive Insights With Owens Harkey Advertising’s marketing and creative service resources coupled with OH Strategic Communication’s unparalleled messaging and strategic planning expertise, OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics and advanced targeted marketing. Leading Arizona pollster Michael Noble from MBQF Consulting brings proprietary social statistics software and services to OH Predictive Insights providing clients with tools to solve their most challenging problems. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-254-5159.