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Utah Voters Divided on Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Plurality of Utah Voters Fear Russian War would Spark Afghanistan-Type Re-Run

PHOENIX (February 24th, 2022)- Discussion about military action between Russia and Ukraine has been circling the media in recent weeks, sparking conversation across the nation on whether the US military will involve itself in the conflict. According to the latest Utah Public Opinion Pulse (UTPOP) survey by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI), a majority of Utah voters are extremely or moderately concerned about potential involvement of the US military in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

This UTPOP was conducted February 7th – February 14th, 2022 and surveyed 739 Utah registered voters, giving the survey a margin of error of +/- 3.6%.

Overall, 9 in 10 Utah voters have heard news that there may be military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with over half of voters (58%) having heard a moderate or great deal about it. The UTPOP survey found that awareness was highest among voters with a HHI $100k+ (77%), frequent MSNBC (76%) and CNN (75%) consumers, and voters aged 55+ (81%).

The recent survey found that voters who have heard more about the potential conflict have significantly higher levels of concern (58% of those who had heard a great deal or a moderate amount were extremely or moderately concerned) compared to those who have heard less (36% of those who had heard some or a little were extremely or moderately concerned). Looking closer at some key demographic groups, concern is significantly higher among older voters (65% of those aged 65+) than younger voters (40% of 18-34-year-olds).

feb 2022 ut ukarine aware concern
“Similar levels of both awareness and concern among all parties tells us that, in Utah, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is a nonpartisan issue – a rarity in today’s hyperpolarized political environment,” said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research.

Despite awareness and concern from a majority of Beehive State voters, there is little unity in support for the US going to war with Russia to defend Ukraine; in total, 32% of voters say they would support a war with Russia while 40% oppose. Among the one-third who would back a Russian war, Republicans (35%) and Democrats (36%) are more in favor of war than Independents (26%).

feb 2022 war support ut

Key groups driving the opposition include older voters (50% of those aged 55+), parents of adult children (49%), and voters with a HHI of $50k or less (43%). However, more than one-quarter of voters neither support nor oppose a war with Russia if they were to invade Ukraine.

“Even with one-third of voters in support of a US war with Russia, much of that support is soft, whereas voters in opposition feel a bit more strongly about their opinion,” said Mike Noble.

With disparity among voters on the role the US should play in the Russia-Ukraine situation, a plurality (48%) are worried this might turn into another Afghanistan-type situation and prefer not to enter any wars. This sentiment is heavily driven by more than half of Utah Independents (53%). However, more than one-third of voters (35%) say that the US should stand up to Russian aggression should they invade our allies, and would support a war to fight against Russia.

feb 2022 ut war opinon

“Memory of the 20-year-long war in Afghanistan has left Utah voters gun-shy about entering another conflict halfway around the globe,” said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research.


Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from February 7th – February 14th, 2022 from a Utah Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to voter statistics derived from the Utah Lt. Governor’s Office and recent Census data. The sample size was 739 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 3.6%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Media Contact:

Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights,, (602) 390-5248

About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to elevate the world around us by empowering decision-makers with digestible data and actionable insights that translate to data-based solutions. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly O.H. Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at



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