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Utah 2024 GOP Presidential Primary Preview

Trump’s support remains untouched while DeSantis loses ground

PHOENIX (April 4, 2023)- Less than a year away from Super Tuesday, the GOP primary presidential election is picking up steam. In the second of four quarterly surveys in 2023, O.H. Predictive Insights’ (OHPI) Utah Public Opinion Pulse (UTPOP) sought to measure Utah Republican voters’ preferences for the 2024 GOP presidential primary. Republican voters in Utah are standing firmly behind former President Donald Trump in his bid to re-assume the Oval Office.

This UTPOP was conducted from March 14th, 2023 – March 23rd, 2023. The survey sample was 600 Utah registered voters with a margin of error of ±4.0%. Among the 600 voters surveyed, 302 were Utah registered Republicans, yielding a margin of error of ± 5.64% with this group.


“DeSantis’ campaign has not yet gotten off the ground, and despite Trump’s legal and political woes, Trump’s base of support remains fiercely loyal,” said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research. “The Trump team is taking advantage of this, launching a series of coordinated messaging campaigns to dissuade potential DeSantis supporters, attempting to end his campaign before it starts.”

While Trump nearly doubles DeSantis’ support in this poll, a deeper look into the demographics shows significantly varied levels of support for these two candidates and highlights an overarching theme present in today’s Republican Party. Trump performs significantly better than DeSantis in lower-income, lower-education groups (including a 48-point lead among those with a high school diploma or less), while DeSantis is more competitive among college graduates (DeSantis: 28%, Trump: 27%) and those with a household income over $100,000 (DeSantis: 36%, Trump: 34%).

“If this trend continues, it will become an increasingly difficult road for DeSantis to navigate through this electorate,” said Noble. “If he intends to throw his hat in the ring, DeSantis will need to campaign hard and heavy to cut into Trump’s sizeable advantage among non-college-educated Republicans.”

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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by O.H. Predictive Insights from March 14th – March 23rd, 2023 from a Utah Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 600 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4.0%. Among the 600 voters surveyed, 302 were Utah Registered Republicans, yielding a MoE of +/- 5.64% with this group. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Media Contacts:

Veronica Sutliff, O.H. Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@ohpredictive.com, (602) 390-5248

About O.H. Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, O.H. Predictive Insights exists to elevate the world around us by empowering leaders and decision-makers with digestible data and actionable insights that translate to data-based solutions. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. O.H. Predictive Insights is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 362-5694 or visit our website at www.ohpredictive.com.

About the UTPOP: The Utah Public Opinion Pulse (UTPOP) survey is a statewide survey of a base sample of 600 – 800 general population state residents (18+ YO) with a statistically significant sample size of registered and likely voters included. Deploying surveys on a quarterly basis, we are able to gauge and keep an accurate and consistent pulse on the perceptions, opinions, and future decisions of state residents on a number of relevant issues and pressing topics for corporate and political insights. With statewide Public Opinion Pulses also conducted in Nevada and Arizona in addition to Utah, our surveys allow data-seekers to look through the 3 unique lenses of general population residents, registered voters, and likely voters in each state for insights most relevant to them. To learn more about our statewide public opinion surveys and for information on how to purchase customized questions to add to our surveys, click here.

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