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Trump Charges Split Arizona’s Electorate – and Expose Rift in the GOP

Updated: May 8

Presidential Immunity Unpopular among Arizona Voters

PHOENIX (February 28, 2024)- The 2024 Presidential race is anything but typical with the Republican frontrunner, Donald Trump, currently on trial for criminal charges just months before election day. Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) finds that Arizona voters – particularly Republicans – are both dialed into the trials and split in their view.


This AZPOP, conducted from February 6–13, 2024, surveyed 1,002 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.1%. 


Donald Trump is on trial in four criminal cases, facing a total of 91 possible felony counts – a fact that nearly all Arizona voters (93%) are aware of. However, voters are evenly split in their beliefs surrounding these legal proceedings, with about one-third of voters believing he is innocent, another third saying he is guilty, and the remaining third waiting to hear what the courts have to say.

feb 2024 azpop trump charges opinions by party

Democrats are more united on this question than Republicans – “guilty” wins over all other options 2:1. But, among Republicans, only a little over half say he is innocent. The split in the GOP on this question is driven by moderate Republicans and Party-first Republicans (Republican voters who say they identify more as supporters of the GOP rather than supporters of Donald Trump). 4 in 10 of both moderate Republicans (40%) and Party-first Republicans (41%) defer to the decision of the courts, and another 4 in 10 of moderate Republicans (43%) and Party-first Republicans (44%) say Trump is innocent.


Additionally, this poll found a correlation between where a voter gets their news and their opinion on the legal proceedings. Voters who frequently (at least a few times a week) get their news from FOX News or Newsmax are more likely to say Trump is innocent and the charges are politically motivated (45% each), voters who frequent CNN are most likely to say the courts will decide whether Trump is guilty (40%), and frequent MSNBC consumers are most likely to say Trump is guilty (39%).


While voters are split in their opinions of the criminal charges themselves, a majority (54%) say that Trump should not be eligible to run for President or other federal offices if he is found guilty – including almost a quarter of Republicans and 6 in 10 Independents.


feb 2024 azpop should trump be able to run if convicted by party


Moderate Republicans and Party loyalists side more with the rest of their party on this question. About half of moderate Republicans (49%) and Party-first Republicans (54%) believe Trump should still be eligible to run if convicted. However, about one-third of moderate Republicans (30%) and Party-first Republicans (31%) say he shouldn’t be able to run.


“Some Republicans who say Trump should be ineligible to run for President if found guilty may simply believe that he won’t be convicted. Others say that they’ll withhold support from Trump now, but – like the Trump-skeptical Republicans of the past two cycles – may come back to him by November. But, even after accounting for those voters, it seems that there’s a real chunk of the party that’s expressing worries about his legal status,” said NPI Chief of Research David Byler.


Voters become even more united when asked if Presidents should be immune from prosecution for crimes they may have committed, with 72% answering “No.”


feb 2024 azpop presidential immunity from crime

“This is a tough issue for Republicans: Democrats are fairly united, and the GOP is fairly split,” said David Byler. “If Trump is found guilty, this could be a great wedge issue for Democrats in the fall.”


Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from February 6–13, 2024 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 1,002 completed surveys, with an MoE of ± 3.1%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Media Contact:

Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights,, (602) 390-5248

About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly O.H. Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at


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