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Republicans Convinced Maricopa County Audit Results to Show Trump Victory

Significant Slice of Democrats hold Favorable View of Audit though hold Firm that Biden won Arizona

PHOENIX (July 19th, 2021)- More than 60% of Arizona GOP voters believe former President Donald Trump will get more votes than President Joe Biden in the state once the controversial audit of Maricopa County ballots is completed, a new Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) survey conducted by OH Predictive Insights shows.

And while Republican support for the audit of Maricopa County drives the politicians and commentators pushing a review of the 2.1 million 2020 ballots, the poll also found the audit enjoys a favorable impression from two in five of the state’s Democratic voters.

This AZPOP survey was conducted July 6th – July 11th, 2021 and surveyed 863 registered voters in Arizona and had a margin of error of +/- 3.3%.

Republicans maintain a 55% favorable view of the audit with just 31% holding a negative opinion of the happenings at the state fairgrounds. And 62% of Republicans believe the completed audit will show former President Donald Trump beat President Joe Biden in Arizona. Just 2% of Democrats and 25% of Independents believe a new count would show Trump the winner.

For Republicans, the audit is a way to recast the November election. The state certified Biden the winner of the 11 electoral votes after the counting showed he received about 11,000 more votes than Trump.

The poll found that among voters who have heard of at least something about the audit, 20% of Democrats questioned had a very favorable view of the audit while another 20% had a somewhat favorable opinion. Just over half of Democrats – 51% – had either a very or somewhat unfavorable view of the audit.


“Though Democrats and Independents may not be unified in how they feel about the audit, they are clear that the results won’t change,” said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research. “But, Republicans are counting on this audit to prove the rhetoric they have heard on Fox News and other conservative news sources – that Trump won Arizona and the entire election.”

Even though there is no mechanism to reinstate Trump as president, 27% of Republicans think that is a possibility after audits are done in Arizona and other closely contested states. Fourteen percent of Democrats and 15% of Independents believe that could happen.


Noble noted 39% of GOP voters believe there was no evidence of widespread fraud. They are joined by 85% of Democrats and 76% of Independents.

“More than 60% of Republican voters say enough fraud occurred in the 2020 election that it changed the results,” Noble said. “GOP candidates in 2022 may have a hard time convincing those voters to come back to the polls in an election that features all statewide offices and a U.S. Senate seat.”

While the outcome of the audit is still unknown, voters across the political spectrum say the audit increases confidence in Arizona’s elections. One-third of Democrats and 38% of Republicans say the audit will increase confidence in the integrity of Arizona elections. In comparison, 20% of Democrats and 20% of Republicans say the audit will lead to less confidence in election integrity.

While opinions on the audit vary, one thing is clear from the poll: voters are paying attention. Ninety percent of voters have heard at least something about the audit, with more than half of voters hearing a great deal or a moderate amount about the review.

“Even though the election can’t be changed, voters in Arizona are paying attention to this audit,” said Jacob Joss, OHPI Data Analyst. “The national and local news coverage of the audit is influencing how people look at what’s going on at the Madhouse on McDowell. Viewers of sites like Newsmax and OANN look at the audit through a positive lens by wide margins.”

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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from July 6th to July 11th, 2021, from an Arizona Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 863 registered voters in Arizona, with a MoE of ± 3.3%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Media Contacts:

Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights, h.plaster@ohpredictive.com, (602) 687-3034

Veronica Sutliff, OH Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@ohpredictive.com, (480) 398-0998

About OH Predictive Insights: As a non-partisan market research, predictive analytics, and public opinion polling firm, Arizona-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling, and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights serves political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing with key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 480-313-1837 or submit a request online at OHPredictive.com.

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