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POLL: Mark Kelly Flying High in the Grand Canyon

Updated: May 8

Mark Kelly Flying High in the Grand Canyon State

Former Astronaut Leading by 9

PHOENIX (April 15th, 2020) –In the race to serve the final two years of John McCain’s six-year term, astronaut Mark Kelly continues his stellar performance over former fighter pilot Martha McSally.

The most recent Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) of 600 Arizona Likely voters shows Kelly leading McSally by 9 points, earning the support of 51 percent of respondents compared to McSally’s 42 percent. Seven percent of respondents were undecided. The latest results closely mirror the head-to-head matchup of former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump. In the same poll, Biden leads Trump 52 to 43 percent.

“From fundraising to polling, Kelly currently has the advantage over McSally,” said Mike Noble, Chief of Research at Phoenix-based public opinion polling and market research company OH Predictive Insights. “The good news for McSally is that the election is not for another seven months and she has plenty of time to impress voters.”

A driving force behind Mark Kelly’s almost 10-point lead at this point in the race is his overperformance among Independent voters. Respondents who are neither Republican nor Democrat say they plan on voting for Kelly over McSally by more than 40 points. A gap that Martha McSally needs to narrow to win come November.

Taking a step back from the head-to-head matchup and looking at the candidates’ favorability ratings paints a slightly rosier picture for Martha McSally. Mark Kelly’s high net-favorability rating (+27 percent) is driven largely by a low “unfavorable” rating than a high “favorable” one. If McSally can control the message, she can bring Kelly’s numbers closer in line with her own net-favorability rating (-2 percent).

The data provides reason to believe that this will be feasible for her to accomplish. Almost 60 percent of voters who have not formed an opinion about Mark Kelly already have a favorable view of President Trump, leading one to assume that they are more likely to have an unfavorable view of Kelly, once they learn more about him.

“If the parable of the tortoise and the hare taught us anything,” says OHPI Data Analyst, Jacob Joss, “it’s that no matter how far behind someone may seem, a race is never over. Seven months is an eternity in a political campaign and if Martha McSally turns on her afterburners there’s a real possibility she could overtake Mark Kelly come November.”


Methodology:  This blended phone poll was conducted via cell and landline. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on April 7th, 2020 and April 8th, 2020, from an Arizona likely 2020 General Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, gender, region, ethnicity, age, and education level. The sample size was 600 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4.0%. Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding. Click here to view the poll report results

Media Contacts:   Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights,, (480) 313-1837

Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights,, (602) 687-3034

About OH Predictive Insights: Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-362-5694 or submit a request online.



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