OH Predictive Insights Accurately Polls Midterm Elections

OH Predictive Insights Accurately Polls Midterm Elections

Phoenix-based polling firm adds wins, calling 13 total races right in two years

PHOENIX (Nov 15, 2018) – Arizona’s leading polling firm, OH Predictive Insights (OHPI), is adding even more wins to its list after predicting Senator-elect Kyrsten Sinema’s final vote percentage, within the margin of error, and Governor Doug Ducey’s win over David Garcia. ​

Since its founding in 2016, OHPI has correctly called all 13 races it has polled, including races in the recent Arizona Primary Election, multiple races throughout 2016 and the AZ-08 special election.

“With Arizona’s U.S. Senate race being the hottest in the country, we were dead set on predicting it correctly,” says Mike Noble, Managing Partner and Chief Pollster. “Turnout was key in this race, and voters showed up in record numbers.”

The most recent OHPI/ABC15 poll, conducted between November 2 and 3, 2018 showed McSally in the lead with 49 percent of the vote, while Kyrsten Sinema trailed with 48 percent. With Green candidate Angela Green dropping out of the race, the remaining three percent were left undecided. This positioned Sinema only one point below McSally, mere days before the election.

Although a previous OHPI/ABC15 poll showed McSally ahead by seven points, drastic changes in the early voting turnout prompted OHPI to conduct a last-minute poll to properly gauge the public perception. As the new Democratic midterm primary voters began to return their ballots, it became clear that they were planning to break general election turnout records as well.

Compared to Sinema’s actual vote of 50 percent, OHPI predicted within the margin of error at 48 percent. The same can be said for McSally’s actual vote of 48 percent, which OHPI predicted at 49 percent. The firm predicted that the final tally would come down to the last few days of voter turnout, which was accurate given Sinema’s lead spiked in the days after the election.

Arizona’s race for U.S. Senate has been a particularly tough contest, with the final vote even taking days to call after the election passed. Pollsters around the country have been back and forth for months, with factors like a wave of young voters and record-breaking voter turnout affecting predictions of the candidates from all angles. A breakdown of the actual vote compared to other pollsters’ predictions shows how the race came down to who could best get their supporters out to vote on Election Day.

OHPI was also accurate in predicting Governor Ducey’s win over David Garcia. The last OHPI/ABC15 poll predicted Ducey would come out with 57 percent, when the actual vote landed at 56 percent. Garcia was predicted with 39 percent and the actual vote came out at 41 percent.

“At OHPI, we pride ourselves on accuracy,” says Noble. “As we always say –you can wait until election day, or we can let you know ahead of time.”

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Methodology for Governor Race: This 42% cell phone and 58% landline poll was completed by OH Predictive Insights on October 22, 2018 and October 23, 2018, from a likely 2018 General Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, gender, region, and age. The sample size was 600 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4%. Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding. Poll report for the General Election poll can be viewed here.

Methodology for Senate Race: This all live-caller survey was conducted via 50% cell and 50% landline poll. The poll was completed by OH Predictive Insights on November 2, 2018 and November 3, 2018, from a likely 2018 General Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, gender, region, and age. The sample size was 631 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 3.9%. Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding. Poll report for the General Election poll can be viewed here.

Media Contact: Annelise Krafft, OH Predictive Insights, a.krafft@ohpredictive.com, (480) 414-8770

About OH Predictive Insights: Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-254-5159 or submit a request online.