top of page

More than Half of Republicans Think Trump was the “Rightful” Winner in 2020

More than Half of Republicans Think Trump was the “Rightful” Winner in 2020

54% of GOP Voters Believe the Election Was Stolen From Trump

PHOENIX (February 8th, 2021)- As Republicans in the Arizona State Senate prepare to go to the mattresses with the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors over an audit of the 2020 election results in the state’s largest county, just six in 10 voters are confident in the outcome of the election.

According to a survey conducted by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) in January 2021 of Arizona registered voters, three in five voters in the state believe Joe Biden is the rightful winner of the 2020 Presidential Election and that the election results are sound. However, small but significant portions of the state believe that the election was stolen from former President Trump and that he is the actual winner of the election.

“Despite a lack of evidence, half of Arizona Republican voters believe the 2020 election was stolen from Trump,” says OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss. “There may be no convincing these voters otherwise, even as the voting machines undergo several audits.”

The schism is deepest by party. Just 3 percent of Democrats believe Trump is the rightful winner, as do 20 percent of independents. But more than 50 percent of GOP voters claim that Trump is the rightful winner, while an additional 19 percent are unsure of who won in 2020.

A slightly larger share of Arizonans believes that the election was stolen from President Trump and delivered to President Biden in several states. Half (54%) of Republicans, 22% of Independents, and 8% of Democrats subscribe to this view.


Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from January 11th to January 18th, 2021, from an Arizona Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 1,022 completed surveys, with an MoE of ± 3.1%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Media Contacts:

Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights,, (480) 313-1837

Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights,, (602) 687-3034

About OH Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan market research, predictive analytics, and public opinion polling firm, Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling, and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights serves political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing with key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 480-313-1837 or submit a request online at



bottom of page