Arizonans See the Light at the End of the COVID-19 Tunnel
Voters optimistic about the month ahead for the first time since April, increase approval for Ducey
PHOENIX (August 13th, 2020)- As Arizona appears to be flattening the curve of the Coronavirus outbreak, voters anticipate the state’s fortunes will improve in August, according to a recent survey by OH Predictive Insights.
The poll found 46% of likely Arizona general election voters expect the COVID-19 outbreak in Arizona to get better in the next 30 days. Less than one-third expect conditions to worsen.
The poll also finds that, while voters are optimistic, it is very cautious optimism, as most of the state remains very concerned about the outbreak. Sixty-one percent of the electorate is still extremely or moderately worried about the spread of Coronavirus, a decrease of 6 points from last month.
“For a virus which does not care about political party, ethnicity, religious affiliation or economic status, there remains an unusual partisan split in opinions on the virus,” says Mike Noble, OHPI Chief Pollster. “Republicans are consistently less concerned than Democrats and Independents on the issue.”
The 6-point drop in high concern is almost entirely due to Republicans as a group becoming less worried about the outbreak. From July to August, Independents and Democrats each stayed at roughly the same level of concern – each decreased by 1%. Concern among Republicans, on the other hand, fell 12 points. In fact, this survey found that 46% of Republicans are slightly or not at all concerned about the pandemic — the highest share since March before it had fully hit the state.
Another revealing split in levels of concern is that between younger and older voters. Even though those between the ages of 20 and 45 accounted for nearly half of Arizona’s COVID cases that age group was less likely to be concerned about the pandemic than voters 45 and older.
In positive news for Governor Doug Ducey, approval among Arizonans of his handling of the Coronavirus has increased from its low point last month. The 6-point uptick in his handling of the virus was a result of Republicans and Independents warming again to the job he is doing. Democrats, however, are still largely unhappy with his actions. Ducey’s approval rating is still well below the peak he reached in April and June.
Increased mask-wearing, a policy promoted by most of Arizona’s state and local officials, seems to have taken hold as well, which may be a source of Arizona’s decreasing COVID-19 cases. According to this AZPOP poll, 84% of voters in the state wear a mask all or most of the time when out and about. Regular mask-wearing is highest among Democrats (95%), those more concerned about the Coronavirus (95%), female independents (90%), and those 55 and older (87%). Those less concerned about the virus (55%), as well as Republicans (72%) and rural voters (78%), are least likely to report regularly wearing some type of face-covering when in public.
Methodology: This poll was conducted as a blended phone survey 37.2% Live Caller/ 62.9% IVR. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from August 3rd to August 4th, 2020 from an Arizona 2020 Likely Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education level. The sample size was 603 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4.0%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Note: a change was made in the sample methodology of the AZPOP between June and July 2020 to better reflect the state of Arizona’s voter composition.
About OH Predictive Insights: Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-362-5694 or submit a request online.