Nearly Everyone has Heard About the Indictments, but Less Than 10% Have Actually Read Them
PHOENIX (August 23, 2023)- Donald Trump is facing multiple criminal indictments, and Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) has new data on how Utahns are responding. Our latest Utah Public Opinion Pulse (UTPOP) poll shows how differently Republicans and Democrats view the charges – and reveals rare points of bipartisan agreement.
This UTPOP was conducted from July 7th–18th, 2023. The survey sample was 598 Utah registered voters with a margin of error of ± 4.0%. Among the 598 voters surveyed, 556 had heard about the indictments, yielding a margin of error of ± 4.16% with this group.
No consensus on Trump’s standing
The latest UTPOP poll – fielded in July – focused on the June 9 federal indictment, which alleged mishandling of classified documents. Utah voters did not come to a consensus about the charges: 36% said Trump was innocent, 25% said he was guilty, and 39% deferred to the courts.
Republicans – especially those who feel warmly towards Trump – were the most likely to say Trump was innocent. Over half (53%) of Republicans overall said “Donald Trump is innocent, and criminal charges are politically motivated” while only 12% said “Donald Trump is guilty and should be prosecuted.” Among Trump-first Republicans (those who think of themselves as more of a Trump supporter than a supporter of the broader GOP), 78% said the former president was innocent.
Democrats were even more certain of their views. Exactly two-thirds of Utah Democratic voters said that Trump was guilty and should be prosecuted, and only 4% said he was innocent.
Utahns don’t buy the party line – from either side
Utah voters don’t fully accept either party’s narrative about the changes. A 47% plurality said that Trump’s actions were dangerous to national security. But 61% also said that politics mattered more than the facts in the prosecution.
Utah Republicans didn’t unanimously back Trump. Twenty-eight percent of Republicans agreed that “Former President Trump’s keeping of classified documents presents a danger to national security” while 47% disagreed. A gender gap also emerged: 60% of Republican men didn’t think Trump’s actions were a threat to security, while only 35% of GOP women said the same.
Similarly, a notable contingent of Utah Democrats (22%) agreed that “politics played a larger role than facts.”
But, generally speaking, partisanship shaped opinions. Eighty-five percent of Utah Democrats agreed that Trump’s actions were a threat to national security, while only 1% disagreed. Almost 8 in 10 Republicans (77%) said that politics played a larger role than facts in the charges.
Perhaps most importantly, undecided voters lean slightly against Trump. Among Utah voters who said they would wait for the court’s verdict on Trump’s guilt or innocence, 52% said they believed his actions were a threat to national security.
And the news coverage of these changes will matter immensely. Over 9 in 10 (93%) of Utahns reported hearing about the charges, but only 9% said they read the indictment in its entirety. Roughly half (54%) of Utah voters said they learned about the indictments from the news while 23% mostly heard via social media and 13% learned of the events from friends and family.
“The Trump indictments are a fascinating case study in polarization. Yes, many voters from both sides are retreating into their partisan camps, reflexively attacking or defending the former president. But a large chunk of voters are undecided or conflicted,” said NPI Chief of Research David Byler. “These voters are waiting for more information. And they may decide Trump’s political fate in 2024.”
Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from July 7th–18th, 2023 from a Utah Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 598 completed surveys, with a margin of error of ± 4.0%. Among the 598 voters surveyed, 556 had heard about the indictments, yielding a margin of error of ± 4.16% with this group. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, email@example.com, (602) 390-5248
Mike Noble, Noble Predictive Insights, firstname.lastname@example.org, (480) 313-1837
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to elevate the world around us by empowering leaders and decision-makers with digestible data and actionable insights that translate to data-based solutions. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly O.H. Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (480) 313-1837 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.