Nearly Half of Electorate is Secured by Incumbent Senator Lee
PHOENIX (August 17th, 2021)- In a state such as Utah – which has not elected a Democratic US Senator since 1970 and where no Democrat has won statewide since 1996 – often the biggest challenge for Republican Senate hopefuls is winning the GOP primary. With that in mind, at this point in the election cycle, Mike Lee holds a commanding lead over his GOP opponents, according to a new poll commissioned by September Group and conducted by OH Predictive Insights.
Less than one year from the Republican Primary, Mike Lee has a commanding lead. In the run-up to the GOP primary in Utah, incumbent Senator Mike Lee appears to be in a comfortable position to secure his party's nomination for his reelection. Lee commands 45% of the primary electorate, with another 48% undecided.
“Though not yet over the all-important 50% benchmark, Mike Lee is strides ahead of his opponents in terms of support,” said Chuck Warren, Managing Director at September Group. “Lee’s challengers may have more of a hike up King’s Peak than a walk in Zion Park in next year’s GOP primary in Utah.”
Lee's support is more than 40 points greater than that of his nearest opponents and comes predominantly from the party's more conservative wing. Lee's opponents have found their limited traction among urban and moderate/liberal Republicans. Though Lee's lead is significant, with half of the electorate undecided, his re-nomination is not guaranteed. Lee and his opponents will be fighting over the disproportionately female, younger, and more moderate wing of the Republican Party who have yet to settle on a candidate.
Lee's base of support comes primarily from males (52% of whom support Lee), conservative Republicans (55%), and frequent Fox News viewers (56%).
Opposition to Senator Lee has not yet coalesced around one of his opponents. The survey listed three of Mike Lee's opponents (Brendan Wright, Ally Isom, and Becky Edwards), and none cracked 5% support. Combined, his three opponents secured 8% of the electorate – less than one-fifth the size of Lee's base of support. Groups with the highest non-Lee voting intentions are those living in urban areas (22%), Moderate/Liberal Republicans (11%), and those who have an unfavorable view of Lee, to begin with (17%).
Women and young voters dominate the undecideds in the electorate. Nearly six in 10 (58%) female GOP voters and more than half (52%) of voters under the age of 55 have yet to make up their minds in this race. Those shares are large compared to their male (37%) and older (40%) counterparts. In addition to these two groups, lower-income earners (55%), moderate/liberal Republicans (57%), and Republicans who hold an unfavorable view of Donald Trump (63%) have large shares of "gettable" voters.
Methodology: This poll was commissioned by the September Group and conducted by OH Predictive Insights as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from August 2nd to August 8th, 2021, from a Utah Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 680 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 3.76%. Of the 680 completed surveys, 337 identified as Republicans. The sample of 337 Republicans provides a margin of error of +/- 5.3%. Totals may not sum to 100%, due to rounding.
The Utah Public Opinion Pulse (UTPOP) is a statewide survey of Utah residents (18+ YO) with a statistically significant sample of registered and likely voters included that provides regular updates on the moods, perceptions, and opinions of Utahns on hot topics facing the state. Organizations and individuals of all political affiliations have opportunities before each survey is deployed to add customized questions to the end of the survey. The question commissioned by September Group was added to the end of the survey and it cannot reasonably be assumed that previous questions in the survey had an effect on September Group’s question, neither did September Group’s question have an effect on the survey questions that came before it.
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to elevate the world around us by empowering decision-makers with digestible data and actionable insights that translate to data-based solutions. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly O.H. Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.
About September Group, LLC: As a full-service grassroots and voter contact firm,September Group, LLC is dedicated to providing corporations, organizations, elected officials, and candidates with fresh solutions. Our team employs easy-to-use applications aimed at engaging your target audience through powerful, industry-specific strategies that rise above expectations. Whether you are selling a product, an agenda, or your candidacy, we can create and manage a tailored voter contact campaign to transform your vision into reality. For more information, please call 888-737-3435 or visit https://www.septembergroupllc.com.