State of the 2024 Utah GOP Senate Primary Without Romney
PHOENIX (September 14, 2023)- Just yesterday, Sen. Mitt Romney announced that he will not be seeking re-election in Utah’s 2024 Senate race. Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) has been consistently monitoring the state of the Senate race in Utah via the Utah Public Opinion Pulse (UTPOP) poll of Utah voters, and the most recent UTPOP provided proprietary data on what the GOP Senate Primary field looks like – with and without Romney on the ticket – when nobody else was closely tracking this race.
After months of questioning whether or not Sen. Mitt Romney will decide to run for re-election, the long-time Republican politician announced on September 13th that he will retire after his current term ends in January 2025. In a video statement, Romney noted that he would be in his mid-80s by the end of another term, and “it’s time for a new generation of leaders.” His announcement comes as Republicans look to retake control of the Senate next year.
There are many reasons for Romney’s retirement, but a significant one might be his relatively weak political standing. The July UTPOP asked Utah voters whether they think Mitt Romney should run for re-election in 2024, and a 44% plurality of voters did not want to see a Romney re-run – including 54% of Republicans.
Although Mitt Romney garnered support from 3 in 10 Utah Republicans in a hypothetical GOP Senate Primary, 39% of voters remained unsure – enough to push any candidate over the finish line if they coalesced around one candidate. Proactively, this UTPOP also tested for a primary without Romney, providing a now-reflective GOP Senate Primary field.
With Romney out of the running, the race is now anyone’s to win with more than half of Utah voters undecided on who they will throw their support behind.
"We saw Romney's weakness before others for one simple reason: We're deeply invested in the Southwest,” said NPI Chief of Research David Byler. “Utahns clearly said they were unsure about another Romney term. We were listening – and, apparently, so was Sen. Romney."
Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from July 7th–18th, 2023 from a Utah Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 598 completed surveys, with a margin of error of ± 4.0%. Among the 598 voters surveyed, 301 were Utah registered Republicans, yielding a margin of error of ± 5.65% with this group. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to elevate the world around us by empowering decision-makers with digestible data and actionable insights that translate to data-based solutions. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly O.H. Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.