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Trump Gains Ground in Arizona

Updated: Oct 23, 2023

Trump Gets a Bump in Polls among Arizona Republicans, DeSantis’ Support Slips


PHOENIX (May 4, 2023)- As the 2024 presidential race heats up, Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) – formerly O.H. Predictive Insights (OHPI) – latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) took a temperature check on Arizona Republicans’ voting plans next November. The poll found that the leaderboard is still topped by Donald Trump with Ron DeSantis trailing behind.

This AZPOP, conducted from April 4 – 11, 2023, surveyed 1,000 registered voters in Arizona and had a margin of error of ± 3.1%. The sample included 371 registered Republicans, for which the MoE was ± 5.1%


Donald Trump has continued his significant lead ahead of all his Republican competition in a 2024 GOP primary. When asked which candidate they were most likely to vote for, Arizona Republicans broadly prefer Trump (49%), leaving DeSantis in a distant second with 21% support. Trump has gained support (+7) while DeSantis lost support (-5) from the February AZPOP to the April AZPOP. No other potential candidate has yet to break double-digit support.


“Even in the midst of legal woes, Trump is continuing to garner increasing support for his presidential bid in the Republican Primary,” said Mike Noble, NPI Chief of Research. “With his name swirling throughout the press, it seems that, for Trump, no publicity is bad publicity.”

In a head-to-head between Trump and DeSantis, DeSantis absorbs nearly double the support (41%) he had when selected from the broader list of candidates – however, it still isn’t enough to compete with Trump’s 59% support in the face-off.



DeSantis outperforms Trump only among Republicans with a college or post-grad degree (59%) and Republican party supporters (59%). Trump outperforms DeSantis among most other demographics. There are, however, some key groups that are evenly split between the two GOP candidates:

· Parents of adult children (50% each)

· HHI $100k+ (51% DeSantis, 49% Trump)

· Males ages 55+ (51% DeSantis, 49% Trump)

· Moderate Republicans (53% Trump, 47% DeSantis)


Trump performs especially well with Trump supporters (93%), Republicans with a high school or less education (73%), Republicans making less than $50k (70%), non-parents (67%), and females (66%).


“In a key battleground state like Arizona, it’s crucial for candidates to know what voter blocs are evenly split – these are the persuadable groups who have the most potential to be captured one way or the other,” said Mike Noble. “The big opportunity for DeSantis to catch up to Trump in Arizona is to carefully craft messaging that resonates with these middle-of-the-line groups to win them over.”

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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from April 4th – 11th, 2023 from an Arizona Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 1,000 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 3.1%. The sample included 371 registered Republicans, for which the MoE was ± 5.1%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.


Media Contact:

Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248


About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to elevate the world around us by empowering decision-makers with digestible data and actionable insights that translate to data-based solutions. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly O.H. Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.

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