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The Race is On: AZCD01 Democratic Primary

With No Clear Frontrunner and One-Third of Voters Undecided, Six Candidates Vie for Victory in a Race Too Close to Call


PHOENIX (July 9, 2024)- With just weeks left before voters head to the polls, the Democratic primary for Arizona’s 1st Congressional District remains highly competitive with no clear leader emerging from the pack, according to a recent poll from Noble Predictive Insights (NPI).

This poll was conducted June 25-27, 2024 and surveyed 420 Arizona Congressional District 1 likely Democratic primary voters, yielding a margin of error of ±4.78%. 

In a crowded field, the leading candidates, Andrei Cherny and Amish Shah, each sit at just 16% support. Marlene Galán-Woods is on their heels at 14%, and Connor O’Callaghan is close behind at 11%. The remaining candidates have single-digit support. However, the real leader is the 35% of voters who remain undecided, significantly outpacing any individual candidate.

2024 azcd01 dem primary

"This race is a mess. And that's not a surprise. National politics has sucked all of the air out of the room. None of these candidates are particularly well-known. And on the Democratic side of the aisle, there’s no single issue that focuses and divides up primaries," said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. “Many Democrats haven’t tuned in, and those who have are split and unsure.”

Despite various attempts by candidates to gain an edge, it isn’t clear exactly what advantages any candidate could leverage. Galán-Woods – who was endorsed by the pro-choice group EMILY’s LIST – has credibility on abortion. That’s helpful – almost half (45%) of poll respondents identified abortion as the most important issue influencing their vote. Meanwhile, Andrei Cherny’s high-profile endorsement and fundraising support from former President Bill Clinton has yet to translate into a significant boost in voter support. There is also a high percentage (35%) of undecided voters which indicates a level of uncertainty and potential for candidates to sway the race in these final weeks.

“It’s interesting that this close to Election Day, no candidate has reached at least 20% support. Democrats might be a little rusty in their campaigning having had no competitive primaries in a long time and since Arizona has become a battleground,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO.

Andrei Cherny is, comparatively, the most liked, with a net favorability of +43, while the other leading candidate, Amish Shah, has a +34 net favorability rating. Although the two statistically tie for total favorability (48% and 47%, respectively), Cherny is slightly less known (29% never heard of) than Shah (23% never heard of). Marlene Galán-Woods has a 41% favorability rating, but also faces a name recognition challenge with 32% of respondents never having heard of her. O’Callaghan shares statistically equal ratings with Galán-Woods across the board.

2024 azcd01 candidate favs

Notably, all candidates show stronger favorability ratings among older voters, particularly in the 65-74 age group. The 18-54 age group consistently shows lower favorability ratings and higher percentages of “never heard of” responses, indicating an opportunity for candidates to focus on increasing their appeal and recognition among younger voters.

The poll also revealed varying levels of commitment when it comes to their certainty about their choice of candidate.

2024 azcd01 certainty of vote

Andrei Cherny shows the highest level of voter certainty with 51% of his supporters saying they are certain of their vote. Shah has the second-highest level of voter certainty with 47% of his supporters certain of their vote. Galán-Woods has a relatively lower level of voter certainty, with only 40% of her supporters saying they are certain. Horne and O’Callaghan can count on only about one-third of their supporters.

“The bottom line: that 35% unsure figure likely underestimates the number of persuadable voters in this race. Many who say they’re committed to Shah, Cherny, Galan-Woods, or any candidate could be peeled away,” said Byler. "Nobody knows who will win this race. Multiple candidates have the right biography – and enough resources – to win. We'll have to wait until Election Day to see who comes out on top. This one might be a nailbiter." 


Methodology: This poll was conducted via SMS text by Noble Predictive Insights from June 25-27, 2024 and surveyed 420 Arizona Congressional District 1 likely Democratic primary voters, yielding a MoE of ±4.78%. The sample was weighted by ethnicity, age, and education to reflect the projected AZCD01 Democratic primary electorate. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Media Contact:

Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights,, (602) 390-5248

Sydney Evenson, Noble Predictive, (602) 350-1065

About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at


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