Support for Marijuana Legalization Dissipates
Opinions on Measure Evenly Divided in Arizona
PHOENIX (September 29, 2020)- Early ballots begin hitting mailboxes in a week, and the citizen initiative to legalize recreational marijuana still has work to do to earn the support of a majority of voters, a recent poll shows.
According to a recent Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP), Proposition 207 leads but hasn’t crossed the 50 percent threshold.
OH Predictive Insights’ monthly poll of 600 likely voters in the state of Arizona found that 46% of the likely voting electorate supports legalizing marijuana for all adult use, while 45% oppose. This result comes on the heels of a July survey showing more than 6 in 10 voters favored the measure.
“As election day nears, voters appear to be focusing on what’s on the ballot,” says OHPI Chief Mike Noble, “And while the campaign to oppose marijuana legalization is anemic compared to 2016, voters still have concerns about the effort.”
Some of the largest drops in support levels between the July and September surveys came from older voters, rural Arizona, Independents, and Republicans. Lagging support among these voters contributed to the 29-point drop in the measure’s net statewide support.
The measure also appears to have lost its appeal to the many suburban voters in Arizona. According to this survey, support is evenly divided among suburbanites. At the same time, it remains high among voters living in urban areas and low among those in the more rural areas of the state.
Against conventional wisdom, a group of voters who supported the measure in both the July and September survey is parents of young children. Half (50%) of voters with children under 18 at home support legalizing recreational marijuana in Arizona, while 46% oppose it.
“The proponents of legalizing marijuana need to step up and begin spending money to convince voters taking the ultimate leap in approving recreational marijuana is a benefit to Arizona,” Noble said.
Methodology: This poll was conducted as a blended phone survey 46.5% Live Caller/53.5% IVR. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from September 8th to September 10th, 2020, from an Arizona 2020 Likely Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education level. The sample size was 600 completed surveys, with an MoE of ± 4.0%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Note: a change was made in the sampling methodology of the AZPOP between June and July 2020 to better reflect the state of Arizona’s voter composition.
About OH Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan market research, predictive analytics, and public opinion polling firm, Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling, and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-362-5694 or submit a request online.