FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE March 9th, 2020
Joe Biden Leads in Arizona Democratic Primary
Bernie Sanders Distant Second; 39% of Arizonans Indicated They Have Already Voted
PHOENIX (March 9th, 2020) –Joe Biden holds a large lead over Bernie Sanders in the state as Democratic voters consolidate around the former vice president, crushing the Vermont senator by nearly 30 percentage points.
The Arizona Public Opinion Poll (AZPOP) is a statewide survey that was conducted on March 3rd and 4th, with a sample of 398 respondents identified as Democratic Presidential Primary likely voters. The medium utilized was a blended phone survey yielding a +/-4.91% MOE.
Nearly one-half of likely voters (45 percent) prefer Biden with just 17 percent supporting Sanders.
“Biden has a 24-point lead over his nearest opponent among those who have already cast their ballot in this election,” said Mike Noble, Chief of Research and Managing Partner of Phoenix-based public opinion and market research company OH Predictive Insights. “Bernie Sanders’ visit to the Grand Canyon State last week won’t be enough to dig him out of the Grand Canyon-sized hole he finds himself in just before the March 17 preference election.”
Bucking a trend seen in other states’ Democratic primaries thus far in the cycle, Joe Biden is leading Bernie Sanders among all ethnicities. In other states like Nevada, Sanders beat Biden among Hispanics and the two have roughly split white voters. In this poll, however, Biden is beating Sanders among whites by 25%, among non-white and non-Hispanic voters by 28%, and among Hispanics by more than 30%.
Another key factor to keep in mind when looking at Arizona’s Democratic primary is the considerable number of voters who mail-in early ballots. In fact, 2 out of 5 voters have already cast their votes. However, this means that almost 60% of the electorate has either held off mailing in their ballots or who are waiting to vote on election day and can still change their minds on which candidate they will support and will be key targets for the Biden and Sanders campaigns.
Looking at a candidate’s vote share among respondents said they have already sent in their ballots and those who are still waiting to send theirs in or are planning to vote at the polls, Biden appears to have capitalized on his recent momentum and is performing considerably better among voters who have yet to vote. While Biden’s support remains relatively stable whether or not voters have already mailed in their ballots, the share of the non-Biden vote drops 10% between these voters.
We asked the 233 respondents who have not yet voted to see if their reason was due to waiting to see the candidates debate in Arizona on March 15th. A little more than one-third of respondents indicated that is in fact the reason.
It’s important to note that the presence of Elizabeth Warren’s and Mike Bloomberg’s names are in our poll. During sample collection and after we had finished collecting responses, Warren and Bloomberg dropped out of the race. Understanding which candidate that is still in the race will attract the drop-outs’ supporters will be a key factor in anticipating Tuesday’s result.
Perhaps as to be expected, as seen below, when asked whether they would prefer a candidate who is a moderate or one who is a liberal/progressive, Bloomberg’s supporters overwhelmingly would prefer a moderate (69% to 18%). Also in line with expectations, most voters who identified Warren as their first choice prefer a candidate who is liberal/progressive.
More surprisingly, however, one in four Warren supporters said they would prefer a moderate candidate, indicating that Biden may be able to pick up a small but not insignificant portion of her supporters.
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Methodology: This blended phone poll was conducted via cell phone and landline. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights between March 3rd, 2020 and March 4th, 2020, from an Arizona likely 2020 Democratic Primary Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, gender, region, and age. The sample size was 398 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4.91%. Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding.
Media Contacts: Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, m.noble@ohpredictive.com, (480) 313-1837
Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights, h.plaster@ohpredictive.com, (602) 687-3034
About OH Predictive Insights: Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-362-5694 or submit a request online.