FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE December 9th, 2019
Biden, Buttigieg Statistically Tied with Trump in Arizona
Warren and Biden lose ground, Buttigieg steadily rising
PHOENIX (December 9th, 2019) – As Pete Buttigieg’s fortunes rise nationally, a new poll shows the South Bend mayor in a statistical dead heat with President Trump in Arizona.
Buttigieg joins former Vice President Joe Biden as the most competitive Democrats that could face off against Trump, according to the Arizona Public Opinion Poll released Monday.
The poll shows Arizonans are clearly split on Trump’s job performance. He does not cross the 50 percent mark against any Democratic frontrunner.
“Depending on who Democrats select as their nominee, the Grand Canyon State may be in for one of the tightest presidential races in memory,” said Mike Noble, Chief of Research and Managing Partner of Phoenix-based research company OH Predictive Insights. “The biggest surprise is that of the steady rise of Buttigieg in the last six months – the big ‘MO’ is on the South Bend mayor’s side.”
The momentum of the two Democrats is going in completely opposite directions. Biden’s margin has slipped 4 points when last quarter’s AZ Public Opinion Poll showed him ahead of the President by two and the former VP’s margin has shrunk seven points since May when he led President Trump 49% to 44%. On the other hand, Buttigieg steadily rose from a nine-point deficit in May to within two points of the President.
None of the other frontrunners for the Democratic nomination are doing as well as Biden and Buttigieg against the President. Sen. Elizabeth Warren is now down by six after coming within one point of the President in August, and Trump has expanded his lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders to 13% after being up by 10 in the last poll.
A careful observer will note that in each of these 5 head-to-head matchups, the President’s level of support is consistently between 45% and 47% while his Democratic opponent ranges anywhere between 34% and 44%. Michael Bloomberg, a late entrant to the Democratic primary, scores a solid 40 percent to Trump’s 47 percent.
“No Democrat has earned more than 47% in a presidential election here since LBJ in 1964, but given this President’s apparent ceiling, that might just be enough to win when November rolls around,” said Jacob Joss, an OHPI Data Analyst.
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Methodology: This blended phone poll was conducted via cell and landline. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights between December 3rd, 2019 and December 4th, 2019, from an Arizona likely 2020 General Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, gender, region, and age. The sample size was 628 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 3.91%. Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding.
Media Contacts: Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, m.noble@ohpredictive.com, (480) 313-1837
Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights, h.plaster@ohpredictive.com, (602) 402-5181
About OH Predictive Insights: Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-402-5181 or submit a request online.