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Disparity within the GOP on Mar-a-Lago Search Sentiment

Approval of Mar-A-Lago Search Divided among Arizona Likely Voters

PHOENIX (October 3rd, 2022)- Buzz has been circling the news regarding opinions on the FBI investigation at Mar-A-Lago, the residence of former U.S. President Donald Trump. OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) assessed Arizona likely voters’ sentiment on the FBI investigation and whether they approve or not. According to the survey, sentiment is split with 41% of likely voters who felt the search was evidence that Donald Trump committed a crime, while 46% said it was done to damage his career.

This AZPOP was conducted September 6th – September 9th, 2022 and surveyed 654 Arizona likely voters, giving the survey a margin of error of +/- 3.83%.

Trump Supporters versus GOP Supporters

This AZPOP survey asked likely Republican voters if they would describe themselves as a supporter of Donald Trump, or a supporter of the Republican party. Of likely Republican voters, more than one-third (37%) identify as supporters of Donald Trump and just over half (54%) identify as supporters of the Republican party. The survey found meaningful disparities among these distinctions of the GOP surrounding the FBI search on Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home.

Trump supporters are significantly more aware of the Mar-a-Lago search (Trump supporters: 70% heard a lot; party supporters: 39%), more disapproving of the search, and, by an 18-point margin, are more likely to believe that the FBI’s search warrant was a political ploy to damage Trump’s career than party supporters.

“By and large, it is clear that Trump has an impactful hold on the GOP as a whole,” said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research. “Even almost two years after his presidency, Trump’s loyalists in the Republican party still very much have a hand on the steering wheel.”

Overall Awareness Across all demographics, a large majority of likely voters (85%) have seen, read, or heard about the FBI conducting a search warrant on former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. Gender, age, and ethnicity seem to be the prime determinants of a voter’s degree of awareness.

A large impact on awareness comes from where voters receive their information daily. A majority of those who consume news from Fox News (63%), CNN (62%), and local daily TV (57%) have heard a lot about the Mar-a-Lago search.

Not surprisingly, dependent on the network, the sentiment of the FBI search of Mar-A-Lago differed among likely voters. An equal share of CNN and Fox News daily watchers have opposing views. CNN daily watchers felt more strongly that the search was because Trump committed a crime (67%), while Fox News viewers felt the search was political (68%). Likely Voter Sentiment on the “Why” The news has been circulating with differing opinions as to why the FBI investigated Trump’s Mar-A-Lago residence. The recent survey gauged whether Arizonans felt the conducted search warrant on former President Donald Trump’s Mar-A-Lago resort is primarily due to evidence he committed a crime or due to motivation to damage his political career. While 41% of likely voters felt that the FBI conducted a search on Mar-a-Lago was evidence that Donald Trump committed a crime, 46% stated it was done to damage his political career. The remaining 13% were unsure.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, older likely voters were, in most cases, more likely than younger voters to side with the former president. The only exception was found among 55-64-year-olds, who were split down the middle with 44% saying the former president committed a crime and 47% stating the search was done to damage Trump’s career.

“All three parties appear to be holding their respective bases in their opinions on the Mar-a-Lago search – most Republicans say it was politically motivated to damage Trump’s career, most Democrats say, ‘you do the crime, you do the time,’ and Independents aren’t picking sides,” said Noble. Independents were divided down the middle with 44% siding with the FBI and 42% with the former president.

Approval of Mar-A-Lago Search Overall approval of the FBI search of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home was relatively split, with 49% of likely voters approving and 42% disapproving. The recent survey found a divide across party lines in their approval of the search. Nearly 9 in 10 Democrats (88%) approve of the FBI search, with only 8% disapproving. Republicans, however, were not as united in their stance. While 7 in 10 stated their disapproval (71%) of the Mar-A-Lago search, 20% expressed approval. Independents remained characteristic, with 48% disapproval and 42% approval.

This divide in Republicans is partly due to those who classify themselves as Trump supporters versus Republican party supporters. With a 22% separation, Trump supporters disapprove of the search at Mar-A-Lago at 88%, while 66% of Republican party supporters disapprove.

Age, ethnicity, household income, and population density are the key drivers of approval/disapproval sentiment among likely voters.


Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from September 6th to September 9th, 2022 from an Arizona Statewide Likely Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the likely voter population by gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to a recent voter file derived from the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office and recent Census data. The sample size was 654 likely voters in Arizona, with an MoE of ± 3.83%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Media Contacts: Veronica Sutliff, OH Predictive Insights,, (602) 390-5248 Megan Newsham, OH Predictive Insights,, (314) 287-1985 About OH Predictive Insights: As a non-partisan market research, predictive analytics, and public opinion polling firm, Arizona-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling, and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights serves political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing with key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 480-313-1837 or submit a request online



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