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AZ GOP Gov Race Update: Robson, Lake Neck and Neck, Salmon Trailing

38% Still Undecided of Whom They Would Vote for

PHOENIX (June 8th, 2022)- With just under two months until primary elections in Arizona, OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) conducted their statewide AZPOP survey and asked Republicans about the GOP race for Governor. The recent survey among Arizona likely voters revealed a competitive race to replace Governor Doug Ducey.

Note: The data within this release is a likely voter sample rather than a registered voter sample – only including voters who have been qualified as likely to vote in upcoming elections – of Arizona Republicans. As the primaries draw nearer, having a drilled-down look at the current share of the electorate that we’re most likely to see at the ballot box is crucial for accurate and representative data and insights.

This AZPOP was conducted from May 9th – May 16th, 2022 and surveyed a statistically significant sample of 281 registered Republicans in Arizona who qualified as likely voters, yielding a margin of error of ± 5.85%.

According to the latest Arizona survey by OHPI, Arizona likely Republican voters place Kari Lake in first position at 23%. Robson is even hotter on Lake’s heels at 21%. Salmon is still trailing Lake and Robson at 14%. Nearly 2 in 5 likely GOP Primary voters are still undecided.

“The race to be the Republican nominee for Governor is currently neck and neck between Robson and Lake, Salmon trailing,” said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research. ”With less than two months away from the Primary election, this race is going to heat up before it cools down.”

“The 38% of unsure voters will be the ones to win over – they will be the decision-makers come Election Day.” said Noble.


Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from May 9 to May 16, 2022, from an Arizona Statewide Republican registered voter sample that qualified as Likely Voters. The sample size was 281 registered voters in Arizona, with an MoE of ± 5.85%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Media Contacts:

Veronica Sutliff, OH Predictive Insights,, (602) 390-5248

Megan Newsham, OH Predictive Insights,, (314) 287-1985

About OH Predictive Insights: As a non-partisan market research, predictive analytics, and public opinion polling firm, Arizona-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling, and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights serves political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing with key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 480-313-1837 or submit a request online


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