Updated: May 9
U.S. Senate Edition: with a Specific Look into Arizona
Always feel like everyone around you knows more about politics? Feel like you have nothing to contribute to the conversation or are hesitant to because you aren’t a political junkie? Well, then you are in the right place!
Welcome to Politics 101.
Assuming you clicked on this blog because of the title, it is also probably safe to assume you would like to get a breakdown of the need-to-know about the current political climate. In a nutshell, elections to the U.S. Senate will be held on November 8, 2022, with 35 U.S. Senate seats up for grabs. 14 of these seats are currently held by Democrats while the other 21 are held by Republicans.
However, for a lot of people, politics can be as digestible as swallowing gum, so we broke it down to the basic “need-to-know” so you don’t feel out of the loop with what’s going on in the political world.
Who cares more about this U.S. Senate election?
With U.S. Senate elections still a few months away, not all voters have made a clear choice on whom they will vote for. However, there is a stronger pull from Republican voters on who controls the Senate. Why, you may ask? The Democratic party currently controls the Senate and is also the party of the current U.S. President.
According to Pew Research Center, in a shift from the 2018 midterms, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say partisan control of Congress ‘really matters’. The survey found that 71% of Republican voters say their vote for Congress is ‘against Biden’.
Historically, the President’s party typically does not do well in midterm elections. Although there is no clear data to explain why this is, many theories have circulated as to why. Unless you’re one of the lucky ones with unlimited free time to research this yourself, I’ll give you a breakdown of the top theory so far: Presidential approval ratings around election season. And as for this U.S. Senate election season, it is not looking good for President Joe Biden. According to fivethirtyeight, his approval rating is the second-lowest of any president at this point in their presidency since modern polling came into play. Yet, if you look into the data further, you’ll find the only other president coming out on top with the lowest approval rating at this point in their presidency is Donald Trump (Republican Party).
Key Takeaway: With all this information at your disposal, the one thing to takeaway is that the fight is historically stronger from the underdog party. The U.S. Senate elections are a fight for control and Republicans have not backed down to take it back.
For interactive graphs to further explain this information visit here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/